5 Burning Bush

Hamburg, NY 14127

$250,000D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,764 sqft · Built 1973 · SingleFamily · Pending · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,049/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$669
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $-361/mo
• Annual: $-4,328/yr
• Cap rate: 4.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.18%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $70,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-361 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $186k (25.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (18.0% below list).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $186k (25.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#43 in NY, #692 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Hamburg Central School District (suburban): math 46% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #267 of 590 in NY (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 2.4% in Hamburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.