L11 Tolsona Lake Rd

Tolsona, AK 99588

$499,900D+

8 bd · 5.0 ba · 3,500 sqft · Built 1995 · MultiFamily · Active · 84 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,815/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax + insurance: −$833
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,011
• Net cashflow: $349/mo
• Annual: $4,190/yr
• Cap rate: 7.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.99%
• DSCR: 1.13
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $139,972

Investor read

• This is a 8-bed/5.0-bath multifamily listed at $500k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $349 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $482k (3.7% below list).
• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($470k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $470k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 31/100 on livability (#328 in AK) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Copper River School District (rural): math 38% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #19 of 53 in AK (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $95k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $140k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Snow removal — Snow covering the entire property
• Moderate: Exterior painting — Painted walls show wear
• Minor: Window sealing — Standard windows show wear