L11 Tolsona Lake Rd · Tolsona, AK 99588

$499,900

8 bd · 5.0 ba · 3,500 sqft · MultiFamily · 84 Days on market

Built 1995 Fair condition 2.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Livability +1.6/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Amazing opportunity to own this 4 bedroom house with 2 rentals on Tolsona lake! The main house has a large kitchen with a bar-counter seating area, as well as a dining area and an open, spacious living room. There's a bedroom and 3/4 bath upstairs, diamond willow carved staircase going to the lower daylight basement that has another family room, the main bedroom with ensuite, and 2 other bedrooms! Two car attached, heated garage as well as 2 rental apartments, each with a 3/4 bathroom, living room, and kitchen. This property is in walking distance to Tolsona Lodge, and the rentals can be used for year-round or B&B. This is a great investment opportunity as well as a chance to live on the lake. Short 20-minute drive to Glennallen for work and groceries. No property taxes!

Key facts

• Ensuite
• Large kitchen
• 2.5 acre lot

Tags

• LARGE KITCHEN
• BAR-COUNTER SEATING AREA
• OPEN SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• LOWER DAYLIGHT BASEMENT
• ENSUITE
• TWO CAR ATTACHED HEATED GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 8-bed/5.0-bath multifamily listed at $500k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $349 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $482k (3.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $470k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 31/100 on livability (#328 in AK) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Copper River School District (rural): math 38% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #19 of 53 in AK (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $140k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($470k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $95k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $469,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.99%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $82,531
• Equity at exit: $224,777

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.88×
• Total profit: $262,814
• Equity at exit: $346,408

Cash invested: $139,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99588

• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 43.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,815 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$625 /mo · $7,498/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,011
• Net cashflow: $349

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,373

Max offer price $499,900

Occupancy floor 88%

5-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 5× units	2	0.75	$4,815
Total (5 units)			$4,815

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,975
• Closing costs: $14,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $499,900 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $499,900 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $499,900 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $499,900 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   price $499,900 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $595,000 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $595,000 Active 78 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $595,000 Active 77 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $595,000 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $595,000 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $595,000 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $595,000 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $595,000 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $595,000 Active 66 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $595,000 Active 65 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $595,000 Active 64 DOM
17. 2026-03-27
    listed $595,000 Active 785-char remark

    Show marketing remark (785 chars)

    Amazing opportunity to own this 4 bedroom house with 2 rentals on Tolsona lake! The main house has a large kitchen with a bar-counter seating area, as well as a dining area and an open, spacious living room. There's a bedroom and 3/4 bath upstairs, diamond willow carved staircase going to the lower daylight basement that has another family room, the main bedroom with ensuite, and 2 other bedrooms! Two car attached, heated garage as well as 2 rental apartments, each with a 3/4 bathroom, living room, and kitchen. This property is in walking distance to Tolsona Lodge, and the rentals can be used for year-round or B&B. This is a great investment opportunity as well as a chance to live on the lake. Short 20-minute drive to Glennallen for work and groceries. No property taxes!

18. 2026-03-16
    listed $595,000 Active 785-char remark

    Show marketing remark (785 chars)

    Amazing opportunity to own this 4 bedroom house with 2 rentals on Tolsona lake! The main house has a large kitchen with a bar-counter seating area, as well as a dining area and an open, spacious living room. There's a bedroom and 3/4 bath upstairs, diamond willow carved staircase going to the lower daylight basement that has another family room, the main bedroom with ensuite, and 2 other bedrooms! Two car attached, heated garage as well as 2 rental apartments, each with a 3/4 bathroom, living room, and kitchen. This property is in walking distance to Tolsona Lodge, and the rentals can be used for year-round or B&B. This is a great investment opportunity as well as a chance to live on the lake. Short 20-minute drive to Glennallen for work and groceries. No property taxes!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $57,780
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,002
• − Property taxes: −$7,498
• − Insurance: −$2,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,622
• − Management: −$4,622
• − Depreciation: −$14,543
• Taxable loss: −$4,008
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$962
• After-tax cash flow: $5,152/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The property is in fair condition with moderate repairs needed, including exterior painting and landscaping. It has potential for increased value with these improvements.

Repairs flagged

• Major Snow removal — Snow covering the entire property
• Moderate Exterior painting — Painted walls show wear
• Minor Window sealing — Standard windows show wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both Exterior painting — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and rental value
• Both Window sealing — Improves energy efficiency and resale value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Snow removal · Snow covering the entire property	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior painting · Painted walls show wear	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Window sealing · Standard windows show wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$18,500–68,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Exterior painting — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and rental value ↑
• Both Window sealing — Improves energy efficiency and resale value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Copper River School District
• NCES district ID: 0200070
• Math proficiency: 38% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,446
• Composite: 38.52/100
• National rank: #8449
• State rank: #19 of 53 in AK

Livability — Tolsona

• Score: 31/100
• State rank: #328
• US rank: #27866

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tolsona, AK
• Population (ZIP): 1,138

Population outlook (Copper River County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 2,674

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Native American 28% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Portuguese 4% Danish 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 1%

Not yet ingested

• Political lean: —
• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Listed $595,000 AKMLS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $595,000 AKMLS