8915 Wilkensen Rd SE #3

North Yelm, WA 98597

$83,950B

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 550 sqft · Built 1964 · Manufactured · Active · 111 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,661/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$440
• Tax + insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $732/mo
• Annual: $8,787/yr
• Cap rate: 16.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.38%
• DSCR: 2.66
• 1% rule: 1.98%
• Cash to close: $23,506

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $84k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $732 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $84k).
• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($76k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $76k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $580 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#277 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, commute D+, schools F.
• Yelm School District (rural): math 48% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #108 of 291 in WA (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.8%/yr); 431 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.8% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 16.8% vs local median 4.4% in North Yelm — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.