8915 Wilkensen Rd SE #3 · North Yelm, WA 98597

$83,950

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 550 sqft · Manufactured public records · 111 Days on market

Built 1964 ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy a spacious, functional layout in this charming 1-bed, 1-bath single-wide, fully updated with modern finishes. Highlights include a brand-new kitchen, new windows, updated flooring, fresh blinds, washer/dryer, quartz shower, and stainless steel appliances. The home offers a 1-car carport, private storage unit, and a great yard perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Conveniently located near Longmire Park with easy access to downtown Yelm. Stylish, practical, and move-in ready—this home truly has it all! Lot rent is $895/month.

Key facts

• Fresh blinds
• Updated flooring
• Quartz shower

Tags

• BRAND-NEW KITCHEN
• NEW WINDOWS
• UPDATED FLOORING
• FRESH BLINDS
• QUARTZ SHOWER
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Buyer to verify schools
• Financial info: Land lease: $895/month; Listing terms: Cash or Conventional
• HOA & community: Park name: Yelm MHP & Storage; 31 homes in the park; Pets: see remarks; Park approved for sale

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Community water (included in park rent); Sewer included in park rent; Puget Sound Energy power; Comcast/Xfinity cable and internet
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); One level; Vagabond "Kings Meadow" model; Aluminum skirting
• Construction: Cement construction materials
• Exterior features: Cement/Concrete exterior; Storage on driveway; Common area in the park; RV parking in the park

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Vinyl plank; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 bathtub; 1 shower
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Electric energy source
• Interior features: Dining room; Entry; Dishwasher; Dryer; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove/Range; Washer
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $84k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $732 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $84k).
• Recommended offer: $76k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.8% vs local median 4.4% in North Yelm — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#277 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, commute D+, schools F.
• Yelm School District (rural): math 48% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #108 of 291 in WA (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.8%/yr); 431 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $580 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.8% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($76k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $76,394 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.98% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.38%
• DSCR: 2.66
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $37,837
• Equity at exit: $12,517

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.84×
• Total profit: $113,855
• Equity at exit: $7,258

Cash invested: $23,506 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98597

• Rents YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 431
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,661 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$440
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$105 /mo · $1,259/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $732

Break-even live

Break-even rent $734

Max offer price $83,950

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,988
• Closing costs: $2,518
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $83,950 Active 111 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $83,950 Active 110 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $83,950 Active 109 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $83,950 Active 108 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $83,950 Active 106 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $83,950 Active 105 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $83,950 Active 103 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $83,950 Active 102 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $83,950 Active 101 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $83,950 Active 100 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $83,950 Active 95 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $83,950 Active 94 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $83,950 Active 93 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $83,950 Active 92 DOM
15. 2026-04-21
    price $83,950
16. 2026-02-27
    listed $88,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,936
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,703
• − Property taxes: −$1,259
• − Insurance: −$420
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,595
• − Management: −$1,595
• − Depreciation: −$2,442
• Taxable income: $7,922
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,901
• After-tax cash flow: $6,886/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Yelm School District
• NCES district ID: 5310140
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $58,328
• Composite: 48.34/100
• National rank: #4685
• State rank: #108 of 291 in WA

Livability — North Yelm

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #277
• US rank: #9538

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Yelm, WA
• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 61
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 26,669
• Household income: $92,219
• Rent vs Own: 21.8% rent · 78.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 259.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 3% Pacific Islander 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -192.07%
• Current HPI: 326.4361
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.78%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-5.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $83,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-27 Listed $88,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $52 · -7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.