3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
904 sqft ·
Built 1965
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 65 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,375/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$891
Tax + insurance
−$340
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$289
Net cashflow
$-145/mo
Annual
$-1,735/yr
Cap rate
5.27%
Cash-on-cash
-3.64%
DSCR
0.84
1% rule
0.81%
Cash to close
$47,600
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-145 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $144k (15.0% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (19.1% below list).
It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $138k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 69/100 on livability (#476 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Oakcrest Elementary School (math 38% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,697 of 2,144 statewide, top 80%, 470 students, 83% FRL); Howard Middle School (math 47% / reading 50%, grade C-, #274 of 571 statewide, top 50%, 980 students, 60% FRL); Vanguard High School (math 22% / reading 48%, grade F, #379 of 667 statewide, top 58%, 1,661 students, 59% FRL).
Market conditions: 173 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
7 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $27k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 4.2% in Ocala — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-MCNTJ09ANBKN5H
· Data 11 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29