104 Jefferson Ave

Wyandanch, NY 11798

$499,000D+

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,162 sqft · Built 2004 · SingleFamily · Active · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,999/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,617
• Tax + insurance: −$1,567
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,050
• Net cashflow: $-235/mo
• Annual: $-2,814/yr
• Cap rate: 5.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.01%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $139,720

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $499k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-235 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $458k (8.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $499k).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $458k (8.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#701 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Wyandanch Union Free School District (suburban): math 29% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #717 of 755 in NY (top 95%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Martin Luther King Elementary School (math 30% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,689 of 2,108 statewide, top 81%, 621 students, 89% FRL); Milton L Olive Middle School (math 10% / reading 30%, grade F, #666 of 729 statewide, top 93%, 581 students, 88% FRL); Wyandanch Memorial High School (math 57% / reading 77%, grade B, #746 of 1,100 statewide, top 69%, 843 students, 87% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.
• Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $374k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.4% in Wyandanch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.