1269 Prairie Ridge Trl

Antioch, IL 60002

$389,345D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,550 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,872/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,042
• Tax + insurance: −$649
• HOA: −$247
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$603
• Net cashflow: $-669/mo
• Annual: $-8,027/yr
• Cap rate: 4.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.36%
• DSCR: 0.67
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $109,017

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $389k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-669 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $293k (24.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $287k (26.2% below list).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($384k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $287k (26.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#305 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Chsd 117 (suburban): math 36% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #135 of 620 in IL (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hillcrest Elementary School (math 21% / reading 24%, grade F, #934 of 2,056 statewide, top 46%, 638 students, 0% FRL); Antioch Upper Grade School (math 27% / reading 33%, grade F, #246 of 665 statewide, top 38%, 902 students, 0% FRL); Antioch Comm High School (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #147 of 693 statewide, top 22%, 1,309 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 213 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 104d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 948 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (424 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($109k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.