88 Drexelgate Ct

Middle Island, NY 11953

$269,000D

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,133 sqft · Built 1975 · SingleFamily · Pending · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,702/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax + insurance: −$620
• HOA: −$395
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $-291/mo
• Annual: $-3,492/yr
• Cap rate: 4.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.64%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $75,320

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $269k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-291 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (19.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $269k).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $218k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#703 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Longwood Central School District (rural): math 61% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #235 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Longwood High School (math 90% / reading 77%, grade A, #409 of 1,100 statewide, top 39%, 2,977 students, 44% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 84% at this address vs 58% district-wide (+26 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Longwood Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 123 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 61% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $41k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $113k; list at $269k implies a 138% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.3% in Middle Island — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.