88 Drexelgate Ct · Middle Island, NY 11953

$269,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,133 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1975 871 sqft lot $237/sqft · 37% below area Est $430k · 37% under $395/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious middle-unit townhouse offering 2 bedrooms, 1.5 baths, and a versatile loft for added living or work-from-home space. Features include in-unit laundry, a cozy wood-burning stove, private patio, and full attic providing ample storage. Enjoy a well-maintained community with basketball and tennis courts, in-ground pool, clubhouse, snow removal, and grounds maintenance. Ideally located just minutes from shopping, restaurants, and public transportation. A great opportunity to make this home your own.

Key facts

• In-ground pool
• Wood-burning stove
• In-unit laundry

Tags

• IN-UNIT LAUNDRY
• WOOD-BURNING STOVE
• PRIVATE PATIO
• FULL ATTIC
• IN-GROUND POOL
• WELL-MAINTAINED COMMUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $269k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-291 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (19.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $269k).
• Recommended offer: $218k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.3% in Middle Island — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#703 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Longwood Central School District (rural): math 61% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #235 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Longwood High School (math 90% / reading 77%, grade A, #409 of 1,100 statewide, top 39%, 2,977 students, 44% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 84% at this address vs 58% district-wide (+26 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Longwood Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 123 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 61% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $41k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $113k; list at $269k implies a 138% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,588 (19.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.64%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $429,500
• List price: $269,000
• Delta: -37.37%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26 Amesworth Ct	0.30mi	2/1.5	1,133 (0%)	0mo	$385,000	$340	86
7 Artist Dr	0.65mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,148 (+1%)	6mo	$500,000	$436	55
7 Maple Rd	0.69mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,176 (+4%)	3mo	$620,000	$527	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-61,736
• Equity at exit: $40,109

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-76,047
• Equity at exit: $23,258

Cash invested: $75,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11953

• Home prices YoY: -20.2%
• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,702 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax from tax record: −$508 /mo · $6,094/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$395
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $-291

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,070

Max offer price $217,588

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-139	-5% $-215	+0% $-291	+5% $-367	+10% $-443
Rent	-10% $-504	-5% $-398	+0% $-291	+5% $-184	+10% $-78
Rate	-1.0pp $-156	-0.5pp $-223	base $-291	+0.5pp $-361	+1.0pp $-432

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,250
• Closing costs: $8,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
524 Tudor Ln Unit 524 Middle Island, NY	2.0	1.0	897	$2,780	$3.10	45d	1	0.80mi
301 Tudor Ln Unit 301 Middle Island, NY	2.0	1.0	897	$2,780	$3.10	45d	1	0.87mi
255 Wading River Hollow Rd Ridge, NY	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1441	$3,615	$2.51	0d	1	0.97mi
130 Lake Pointe Ct Unit 130 Brookhaven, NY	2.0	1.0	740	$2,435	$3.29	45d	1	1.10mi
64 Daniel Dr Middle Island, NY	2.0	2.0	1217	$3,725	$3.06	0d	19	1.13mi
356 Lake Pointe Dr Unit 356 Middle Island, NY	2.0	1.0	740	$2,435	$3.29	46d	1	1.17mi
388 Lake Pointe Dr Unit 388 Middle Island, NY	2.0	1.5	785	$2,650	$3.38	45d	1	1.18mi
394 Lake Pointe Dr Unit 394 Middle Island, NY	2.0	1.5	785	$2,650	$3.38	26d	1	1.19mi
444 Lake Pointe Dr Unit 444 Middle Island, NY	2.0	1.0	740	$2,435	$3.29	45d	1	1.21mi
462 Lake Pointe Dr Unit 462 Middle Island, NY	2.0	1.0	740	$2,435	$3.29	45d	1	1.22mi
285 Artist Lake Dr Middle Island, NY	1.0	1.0	836	$1,975	$2.36	45d	1	1.23mi
9 Fairview Cir Unit 2 Middle Island, NY	2.0	1.5	947	$2,500	$2.64	45d	1	1.25mi
9 Fairview Cir Middle Island, NY	2.0	1.5	947	$2,400	$2.53	26d	1	1.25mi
238 Artist Lake Dr Middle Island, NY	1.0	1.0	800	$2,450	$3.06	26d	1	1.25mi
229 Artist Lake Dr Middle Island, NY	1.0	1.0	850	$2,075	$2.44	5d	1	1.26mi
3 Saratoga Ct Unit B Ridge, NY	2.0	1.0	880	$2,800	$3.18	45d	1	1.43mi
825 Spring Lake Dr Middle Island, NY	2.0	2.0	1440	$2,995	$2.08	45d	1	1.47mi
100 Village Dr Ridge, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	733	$2,708	$3.69	0d	7	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $395 · $4,740/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingsnow removalpool

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on market $269,000 Pending 34 DOM
2. 2026-05-14
   price $269,000
3. 2026-04-21
   status Active
4. 2026-04-15
   status Active
5. 2026-04-03
   listed $310,000 Active
6. 2018-05-11
   historical
7. 2018-03-26
   listed $110,000 New
8. 1987-06-15
   soldstatus $113,000
9. 1985-12-11
   soldstatus $85,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,094 · $508/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,094 · $508/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,424
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,068
• − Property taxes: −$6,094
• − Insurance: −$1,345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,594
• − Management: −$2,594
• − HOA: −$4,740
• − Depreciation: −$7,825
• Taxable loss: −$7,837
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,881
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,612/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Longwood Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619230
• Math proficiency: 61% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $72,748
• Composite: 51.63/100
• National rank: #1703
• State rank: #235 of 590 in NY

Livability — Middle Island

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #703
• US rank: #13264

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middle Island, NY
• City population: 13,383
• Population (ZIP): 13,383

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 15% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.61%
• Current HPI: 358.0686
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+216.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $269,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Listed $310,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-05-11 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-26 Listed $110,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1987-06-15 Sold (Public Records) $113,000 Public Records
• 1985-12-11 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,094 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.