34 Hollow Horn Rd

Frenchtown, NJ 18920

$500,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Built 1972 · SingleFamily · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,945/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax + insurance: −$642
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$618
• Net cashflow: $-937/mo
• Annual: $-11,247/yr
• Cap rate: 4.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.03%
• DSCR: 0.64
• 1% rule: 0.59%
• Cash to close: $140,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $500k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-937 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $334k (33.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $294k (41.1% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $294k (41.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#321 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Palisades SD (rural): math 49% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #78 of 539 in PA (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 663 units permitted in Bucks County in 2024 (106 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bucks County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 31y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $280k; list at $500k implies a 79% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 0.8% in Frenchtown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.