34 Hollow Horn Rd · Frenchtown, NJ 18920

$500,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1972 2.29 ac lot $463/sqft · 45% above area Est $691k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Calling all contractors, car buffs, hobbyists...look at the outbuildings! Situated on 2.88 acres in beautiful Tinicum Twp, this home has 3 bedrooms on main level and 4th bedroom, full bath and living area on lower level (In-law suite possibilities with separate entrance). Tucked back away from the house are 2 outbuildings...pole barn with water and electric PLUS additional HEATED garage/workshop that offers many possibilities. More photos coming soon!

Key facts

• Kitchenette
• Car enthusiast space
• Peaceful pond

Tags

• TWO VERSATILE OUTBUILDINGS
• PRIVATE REAR ENTRANCE
• KITCHENETTE
• PEACEFUL POND
• FINISHED BEDROOM POTENTIAL
• CAR ENTHUSIAST SPACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Two attached garage spaces with side entry and inside access; Six driveway spaces (total of eight garage/parking spaces)
• Utilities: Private well water; On-site septic; Electric service
• Home design: Detached home; Estimated year built
• Construction: Frame construction; Block foundation; Above-grade and below-grade structures
• Exterior features: Detached structure; Barn and shed on the property; No tidal water

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level; One bedroom on the lower level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one on main level, one on lower level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (oil); Wall unit cooling (electric); Electric hot water
• Interior features: Fully finished daylight basement with rear entrance and garage access

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $500k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-937 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $334k (33.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $294k (41.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $294k (41.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 0.8% in Frenchtown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#321 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Palisades SD (rural): math 49% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #78 of 539 in PA (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 663 units permitted in Bucks County in 2024 (106 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
• Bucks County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 31y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $280k; list at $500k implies a 79% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $294,500 (41.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.03%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 14.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $690,795
• List price: $500,000
• Delta: -27.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

2.4% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-15,177
• Equity at exit: $208,179

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $49,544
• Equity at exit: $308,443

Cash invested: $140,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18920

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Price-to-rent: 14.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,945 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax from tax record: −$433 /mo · $5,201/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$618
• Net cashflow: $-937

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,131

Max offer price $334,436

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $125,000
• Closing costs: $15,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
73 Headquarters Rd Erwinna, PA	3.0	2.0	1228	$2,945	$2.40	2d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 2358-char remark
2. 2026-05-02
   listed $500,000 Active 2358-char remark
3. 2020-09-16
   historical
4. 2020-08-25
   price $399,900
5. 2020-08-18
   price $415,000
6. 2020-08-11
   price $419,900
7. 2020-07-28
   listed $425,000 Active
8. 2013-11-06
   soldstatus $280,000
9. 2013-10-09
   soldstatus $280,000 Sold

   Show marketing remark (458 chars)

   Calling all contractors, car buffs, hobbyists...look at the outbuildings! Situated on 2.88 acres in beautiful Tinicum Twp, this home has 3 bedrooms on main level and 4th bedroom, full bath and living area on lower level (In-law suite possibilities with separate entrance). Tucked back away from the house are 2 outbuildings...pole barn with water and electric PLUS additional HEATED garage/workshop that offers many possibilities. More photos coming soon!

10. 2013-10-09
    soldstatus $280,000

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    Calling all contractors, car buffs, hobbyists...look at the outbuildings! Situated on 2.88 acres in beautiful Tinicum Twp, this home has 3 bedrooms on main level and 4th bedroom, full bath and living area on lower level (In-law suite possibilities with separate entrance). Tucked back away from the house are 2 outbuildings...pole barn with water and electric PLUS additional HEATED garage/workshop that offers many possibilities. More photos coming soon!

11. 2013-09-06
    status Under Contract

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    Calling all contractors, car buffs, hobbyists...look at the outbuildings! Situated on 2.88 acres in beautiful Tinicum Twp, this home has 3 bedrooms on main level and 4th bedroom, full bath and living area on lower level (In-law suite possibilities with separate entrance). Tucked back away from the house are 2 outbuildings...pole barn with water and electric PLUS additional HEATED garage/workshop that offers many possibilities. More photos coming soon!

12. 2013-07-06
    listed $300,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    Calling all contractors, car buffs, hobbyists...look at the outbuildings! Situated on 2.88 acres in beautiful Tinicum Twp, this home has 3 bedrooms on main level and 4th bedroom, full bath and living area on lower level (In-law suite possibilities with separate entrance). Tucked back away from the house are 2 outbuildings...pole barn with water and electric PLUS additional HEATED garage/workshop that offers many possibilities. More photos coming soon!

13. 1995-01-24
    listed $194,000
14. 1995-01-24
    historical
15. 1992-11-20
    soldstatus $180,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,201 · $433/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,825 · $735/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,625/yr (+$302/mo · 69.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,340
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,008
• − Property taxes: −$5,201
• − Insurance: −$2,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,827
• − Management: −$2,827
• − Depreciation: −$14,545
• Taxable loss: −$20,568
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,936
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,310/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palisades SD
• NCES district ID: 4218330
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $70,390
• Composite: 50.88/100
• National rank: #1793
• State rank: #78 of 539 in PA

Livability — Frenchtown

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #321
• US rank: #9957

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 483

Population outlook (Bucks County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 630,973 people
• By 2030: 627,093 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 609,680 · -3.4%
• By 2050: 584,225 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 539,840 · -14.4%
• By 2100: 483,970 · -23.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Two or more races 20% Asian 4%
• Common ancestry: Subsaharan African 12% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Bucks

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.7pp toward R · 2008: 8.7pp · 2024: -0.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.1 2020: D+4.4 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+1.2 2008: D+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• Current HPI: 280.8653
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+177.8% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-02 Listed $500,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-09-16 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-08-25 Price Changed $399,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-08-18 Price Changed $415,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-08-11 Price Changed $419,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-07-28 Listed $425,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-11-06 Sold (Public Records) $280,000 Public Records
• 2013-10-09 Sold (MLS) $280,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-10-09 Sold (MLS) $280,000 TREND
• 2013-09-06 Pending — TREND
• 2013-07-06 Listed $300,000 TREND
• 1995-01-24 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 1995-01-24 Listed $194,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1992-11-20 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $5,201 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.