1434 Knickerbocker Ave

Beecher, MI 48505

$40,000B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Pending · 50 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $938/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax + insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$197
• Net cashflow: $400/mo
• Annual: $4,801/yr
• Cap rate: 18.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.86%
• DSCR: 2.91
• 1% rule: 2.34%
• Cash to close: $11,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $400 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($938 rent vs $40k).
• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($277 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#603 in MI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Beecher Community School District (suburban): math 7% / reading 10% proficiency, ranked #722 of 760 in MI (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dailey Elementary School (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #1,325 of 1,397 statewide, top 99%, 312 students, 96% FRL); Beecher High School (math 5% / reading 15%, grade F, #659 of 713 statewide, top 97%, 262 students, 94% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price; built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 100 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 10 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $34k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (2.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 18.3% vs local median 11.4% in Beecher — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($33k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.