1009 SE 1st St

Winlock, WA 98596

$178,860B-

9 bd · 2.0 ba · 4,656 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,331/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$938
• Tax + insurance: −$260
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$489
• Net cashflow: $643/mo
• Annual: $7,716/yr
• Cap rate: 10.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.41%
• DSCR: 1.69
• 1% rule: 1.30%
• Cash to close: $50,081

Investor read

• This is a 9-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $179k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $643 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $179k).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#247 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Winlock School District (rural): math 25% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #248 of 291 in WA (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Winlock Miller Elementary (442 students, 74% FRL); Winlock Middle School (181 students, 76% FRL); Winlock Senior High (235 students, 71% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 153 active listings in the ZIP; 265 units permitted in Lewis County in 2024 (44 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lewis County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 2.5% in Winlock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.