1009 SE 1st St · Winlock, WA 98596

$178,860

9 bd · 2.0 ba · 4,656 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1940 10,019 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.6/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

NO REPRESENTATION TO THE VALIDITY OF INFORMATION IS MADE, BUYER TO VERIFY ALL INFORMATION WHEREIN. Interior inspections are not available; do not trespass!

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Built 1940
• Listed 4 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 9-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $643 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $179k).
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 2.5% in Winlock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#247 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Winlock School District (rural): math 25% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #248 of 291 in WA (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Winlock Miller Elementary (442 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: 153 active listings in the ZIP; 265 units permitted in Lewis County in 2024 (44 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lewis County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $178,860

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.41%
• DSCR: 1.69
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $11,983
• Equity at exit: $26,669

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $63,217
• Equity at exit: $15,465

Cash invested: $50,081 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98596

• Active inventory: 153
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,331 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$938
• Tax from tax record: −$186 /mo · $2,227/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$489
• Net cashflow: $643

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,517

Max offer price $178,860

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $744	-5% $694	+0% $643	+5% $592	+10% $542
Rent	-10% $459	-5% $551	+0% $643	+5% $735	+10% $827
Rate	-1.0pp $733	-0.5pp $689	base $643	+0.5pp $597	+1.0pp $550

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,715
• Closing costs: $5,366
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-24
   listed $178,860 Active
3. 2018-11-01
   soldstatus $205,000 Sold
4. 2018-11-01
   soldstatus $205,000
5. 2018-07-26
   status Pending
6. 2018-04-19
   historical Pending - Backup Offer Requested
7. 2018-04-17
   price $179,000
8. 2018-04-05
   price $184,000
9. 2018-03-16
   price $189,000
10. 2018-03-01
    price $199,000
11. 2018-02-16
    price $209,000
12. 2018-02-02
    price $214,000
13. 2018-01-25
    listed $219,000 Active
14. 2005-02-25
    soldstatus $220,000
15. 2005-02-25
    soldstatus $220,000
16. 2004-10-30
    listed $220,000
17. 2000-07-05
    soldstatus $95,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,227 · $186/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,227 · $186/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,966
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,019
• − Property taxes: −$2,227
• − Insurance: −$894
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,237
• − Management: −$2,237
• − Depreciation: −$5,203
• Taxable income: $5,148
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,235
• After-tax cash flow: $6,481/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Winlock School District
• NCES district ID: 5309930
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,036
• Composite: 32.95/100
• National rank: #10689
• State rank: #248 of 291 in WA

Livability — Winlock

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #247
• US rank: #7893

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winlock, WA
• Population (ZIP): 7,276

Population outlook (Lewis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,749 people
• By 2030: 74,647 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 71,310 · -5.9%
• By 2050: 67,748 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 59,829 · -21.0%
• By 2100: 52,293 · -31.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 11% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lewis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.0) · D 32.0% · R 65.0% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.8pp toward R · 2008: -19.2pp · 2024: -33.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.0 2020: R+32.8 2016: R+36.2 2012: R+23.5 2008: R+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -168.46%
• Current HPI: 240.7257
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+88.3% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Listed $178,860 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $205,000 Public Records
• 2018-11-01 Sold (MLS) $205,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-26 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-19 Contingent — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-17 Price Changed $179,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-05 Price Changed $184,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-16 Price Changed $189,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-01 Price Changed $199,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-02-16 Price Changed $209,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-02-02 Price Changed $214,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-01-25 Listed $219,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-02-25 Sold (Public Records) $220,000 Public Records
• 2005-02-25 Sold (MLS) $220,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-10-30 Listed $220,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-07-05 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,227 · -3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.