5712 Twin Oaks

Bootjack, CA 95338

$275,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,416 sqft · Built 1981 · SingleFamily · Active · 303 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,300/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$281
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $94/mo
• Annual: $1,126/yr
• Cap rate: 6.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.46%
• DSCR: 1.07
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $77,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $94 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (16.4% below list).
• It's been on market 303 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $230k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,203 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing B; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Mariposa County Unified (rural): math 27% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #282 of 517 in CA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 167 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 89 units permitted in Mariposa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mariposa County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $275k implies a 83% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.4% in Bootjack — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 303 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.