5712 Twin Oaks · Bootjack, CA 95338

$275,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,416 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 303 Days on market

Built 1981 5.31 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Bring Your Cash! Double Fixer Upper with Incredible Views. Two Homes on 5+ acres! Main home is a 2/2 with 1,416 sq. ft. of living space; a 672 sq. ft. attached garage & just off the living/dining/ kitchen area is 320 sq. ft. balcony overlooking the Beauty & Splendor of all God's creation. Manufactured home is also a 2/2; it has 1,152 sq. ft. of living space; the interior renovation on this unit has already begun & most of the old amenities have already been tossed out. The 960 sq. ft. Red Barn adds much to the curb appeal as well as being completely functional. Both homes & the barn could use some cleanup & TLC, but the person that restores this property back t

Key facts

• 960 sq. ft. red barn
• Interior renovation
• 5 acres

Tags

• 5 ACRES
• 320 SQ. FT. BALCONY
• INTERIOR RENOVATION
• 960 SQ. FT. RED BARN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: MH; Total of 2 residential units on the property
• HOA & community: Rural community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Two garage spaces; Two total parking spaces
• Utilities: Well water; Sewer/septic status unknown
• Home design: House; Two stories; Entry at level 1; Accessory dwelling unit (ADU) present
• Construction: Asbestos shingle roof; No common walls
• Exterior features: Secluded lot; Partial fencing; Has a view; No pool

Interior

• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Wood stove heating
• Interior features: Balcony; Two levels; Main level has 1 bedroom and 1 bathroom; Multi-level bedroom layout
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area located in the garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $94 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (16.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $230k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.4% in Bootjack — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,203 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing B; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Mariposa County Unified (rural): math 27% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #282 of 517 in CA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 167 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 89 units permitted in Mariposa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mariposa County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 303 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $275k implies a 83% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $230,000 (16.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 303 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.46%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-38,658
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-26,267
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95338

• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$166 /mo · $1,997/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $94

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,181

Max offer price $275,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $250	-5% $172	+0% $94	+5% $16	+10% $-62
Rent	-10% $-88	-5% $3	+0% $94	+5% $185	+10% $276
Rate	-1.0pp $232	-0.5pp $164	base $94	+0.5pp $23	+1.0pp $-50

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5515 Carleton Rd Mariposa, CA	3.0	2.0	1292	$2,300	$1.78	44d	1	1.05mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $275,000 Active 303 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 302 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 301 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 300 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 299 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $275,000 Active 297 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 296 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $275,000 Active 294 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active 293 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $275,000 Active 292 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $275,000 Active 291 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $275,000 Active 288 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $275,000 Active 287 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $275,000 Active 286 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,000 Active 285 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 284 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $275,000 Active 283 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,997 · $166/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,090 · $174/mo
• Expected delta: +$93/yr (+$8/mo · 4.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 40 unhealthy d/yr today · 46 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$1,997
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,208
• − Management: −$2,208
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$3,592
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$862
• After-tax cash flow: $1,988/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mariposa County Unified
• NCES district ID: 0623940
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $48,669
• Composite: 29.75/100
• National rank: #6438
• State rank: #282 of 517 in CA

Livability — Bootjack

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #1203
• US rank: #26092

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,164

Population outlook (Mariposa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,956 people
• By 2030: 15,078 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 13,413 · -15.9%
• By 2050: 12,232 · -23.3%
• By 2075: 11,143 · -30.2%
• By 2100: 10,187 · -36.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 9% Native American 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Italian 4% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mariposa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.1% · R 59.1% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -12.4pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+18.1 2016: R+23.2 2012: R+17.4 2008: R+12.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -151.82%
• Current HPI: 140.3045
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+83.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $275,000 CRMLS
• 2025-10-14 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-10-02 Pending — CRMLS
• 2025-08-08 Listed $299,000 CRMLS
• 2010-09-22 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,997 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.