2318 E Mile 19 Rd N

Edinburg, TX 78542

$205,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,360 sqft · Built 2001 · SingleFamily · Pending · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,683/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax + insurance: −$359
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $-104/mo
• Annual: $-1,253/yr
• Cap rate: 5.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.18%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $57,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-104 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (9.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (17.9% below list).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $168k (17.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#784 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Edinburg CISD (urban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #699 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dr Kay Teer Crawford El (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 652 students, 91% FRL); Betty Harwell Middle (math 11% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,478 of 1,662 statewide, top 90%, 1,453 students, 96% FRL); Economedes H S (math 19% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 2,762 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 62% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 1003 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 2.4% in Edinburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.