16245 E Burns Dr

The Acreage, FL 33470

$589,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,762 sqft · Built 1989 · SingleFamily · Active · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,700/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,089
• Tax + insurance: −$668
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,197
• Net cashflow: $746/mo
• Annual: $8,951/yr
• Cap rate: 7.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.43%
• DSCR: 1.24
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $164,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $589k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $746 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $570k (3.2% below list).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $570k (3.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#550 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Loxahatchee Groves Elementary (math 65% / reading 58%, grade B, #634 of 2,144 statewide, top 30%, 653 students, 53% FRL); Osceola Creek Middle School (math 53% / reading 54%, grade C+, #205 of 571 statewide, top 36%, 835 students, 41% FRL); Seminole Ridge Community High School (math 36% / reading 56%, grade D-, #220 of 667 statewide, top 33%, 2,262 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.7%/yr); 594 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $259k; list at $589k implies a 127% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.7% rent growth), your $165k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $5,700/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($122k/yr) (locally 43% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.