16245 E Burns Dr · The Acreage, FL 33470

$589,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,762 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1989 1.31 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great family home conveniently located to the new Publix plaza and PB State campus. Freshly painted inside and out. Wide open floor plan, ceramic tile in all rooms, no carpet. Kitchen has newer Stainless appliances, gas range and RO system underneath the sink. 2nd bath has new shower tile. A/C is just 5 yrs, old, roof is 10. Septic was just pumped 11/2/16. Part of garage is converted to bonus room, could be office, or hobby rm. Still has space for storage and garage door is intact. There are 2 hot water heaters, one electric, one gas. Nice 1.3 acre lot w/no pond, and at end of the street. New screening on screened patio. Security system monitored for $125/qtr. House shows awesome, and is easy to show!

Key facts

• 1.31 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1989

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Horse-friendly with riding trail access; Pets allowed with no restrictions; One unit on the property

Exterior

• Parking: Parking for 8 vehicles total; Attached 2-car garage; Covered parking (2 spaces); Driveway and gravel parking
• Security: Owned security system; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Three-phase electric; Cable available; Natural gas available; Water available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story; South-facing; Resale property
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle/composition roof; Concrete perimeter foundation; Built as a single-story home
• Exterior features: Screened patio; Patio; Fenced backyard; Corner lot; Waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Refrigerator; Water purifier (owned)
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Walk-in closets; Split bedroom layout; Pull-down attic stairs; Roman tub
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup inside; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry area in bathroom; Electric and gas water heaters

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $589k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $746 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $570k (3.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $570k (3.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#550 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Loxahatchee Groves Elementary (math 65% / reading 58%, grade B, #634 of 2,144 statewide, top 30%, 653 students, 53% FRL); Osceola Creek Middle School (math 53% / reading 54%, grade C+, #205 of 571 statewide, top 36%, 835 students, 41% FRL); Seminole Ridge Community High School (math 36% / reading 56%, grade D-, #220 of 667 statewide, top 33%, 2,262 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.7%/yr); 594 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,700/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($122k/yr) (locally 43% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.7% rent growth), your $165k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $259k; list at $589k implies a 127% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $570,019 (3.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.43%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.68% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-19,932
• Equity at exit: $87,822

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $170,455
• Equity at exit: $50,926

Cash invested: $164,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33470

• Home prices YoY: -23.3%
• Rents YoY: 7.7%
• Active inventory: 594
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,700 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,089
• Tax from tax record: −$423 /mo · $5,076/yr
• Insurance: −$245
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,197
• Net cashflow: $746

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,756

Max offer price $589,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $147,250
• Closing costs: $17,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
168 Crape Myrtle Ln Wellington, FL	3.0	2.5	2335	$4,975	$2.13	24d	1	1.40mi
151 Sword Fern Pl Wellington, FL	3.0	2.5	2335	$7,500	$3.21	24d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $589,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $589,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $589,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $589,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $589,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-09
   remarks 693-char remark
8. 2026-06-09
   listed $589,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,076 · $423/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,076 · $423/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $68,402
• − Mortgage interest: −$32,993
• − Property taxes: −$5,076
• − Insurance: −$2,945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,472
• − Management: −$5,472
• − Depreciation: −$17,135
• Taxable loss: −$691
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$166
• After-tax cash flow: $9,117/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palm Beach
• NCES district ID: 1201500
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,943
• Composite: 42.72/100
• National rank: #3160
• State rank: #34 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Acreage

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #550
• US rank: #10381

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Acreage, FL
• County: Palm Beach County · 1,438,312 people
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,610
• Household income: $122,163
• Rent vs Own: 5.4% rent · 94.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 43.0

Population outlook (Palm Beach County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,637,487 people
• By 2030: 1,743,255 · +6.5%
• By 2040: 1,948,712 · +19.0%
• By 2050: 2,132,979 · +30.3%
• By 2075: 2,530,027 · +54.5%
• By 2100: 2,706,979 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 16% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 6% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 18% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Palm Beach

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 49.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.1pp toward R · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.8 2020: D+12.8 2016: D+15.3 2012: D+17.0 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.68%
• Current HPI: 410.2689
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.68%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+118.2% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $589,000 Beaches MLS
• 2019-07-16 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2019-07-01 Price Changed $309,999 Beaches MLS
• 2019-05-28 Price Changed $312,000 Beaches MLS
• 2019-05-23 Relisted — Beaches MLS
• 2019-05-21 Contingent — Beaches MLS
• 2019-04-09 Listed $315,000 Beaches MLS
• 2017-01-12 Sold (Public Records) $259,000 Public Records
• 2017-01-09 Sold (MLS) $259,000 Beaches MLS
• 2017-01-04 Pending — Beaches MLS
• 2016-11-28 Contingent — Beaches MLS
• 2016-11-04 Listed $269,900 Beaches MLS

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,076 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.