633 Ira Denson Rd

Coldspring, TX 77331

$210,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,320 sqft · Built 2007 · Manufactured · Pending · 197 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,753/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax + insurance: −$214
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $70/mo
• Annual: $836/yr
• Cap rate: 6.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.42%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $58,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $210k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $70 ($836/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (16.5% below list).
• It's been on market 197 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $175k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,357 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Coldspring-Oakhurst CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #732 of 826 in TX (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 362 active listings in the ZIP; 575 units permitted in San Jacinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Jacinto County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.3% in Coldspring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 197 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: exterior siding — Significant damage
• Major: roof — Rusty metal roof
• Major: interior walls — No visible interior
• Major: bathrooms — No visible bathrooms
• Major: kitchen — No visible kitchen
• Major: systems — No visible systems