633 Ira Denson Rd · Coldspring, TX 77331

$210,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,320 sqft · Manufactured public records · 197 Days on market

Built 2007 Poor condition 5.64 ac lot ↓ 40% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

C A S H SALE ONLY Beautiful country property, hardwood and pines, unrestricted, Porch built across front of one story home. "Newer" barn about 3,000 sq ft, high and dry, no flooding, water well working fine. Walking ring, horse sheds with feed room, cross fenced and fenced, 5.5 acres. This property is being sold "as is", no repairs.

Key facts

• 5.64 acre lot
• Built 2007
• Listed 197 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $210k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $70 ($836/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (16.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.3% in Coldspring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,357 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Coldspring-Oakhurst CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #732 of 826 in TX (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 362 active listings in the ZIP; 575 units permitted in San Jacinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Jacinto County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 197 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,263 (16.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 197 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.42%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-29,649
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-20,337
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77331

• Active inventory: 362
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,753 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$126 /mo · $1,514/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $70

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,664

Max offer price $210,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-08
   price $210,000 360-char remark

   Show marketing remark (360 chars)

   C A S H SALE ONLY Beautiful country property, hardwood and pines, unrestricted, Porch built across front of one story home. "Newer" barn about 3,000 sq ft, high and dry, no flooding, water well working fine. Walking ring, horse sheds with feed room, cross fenced and fenced, 5.5 acres. This property is being sold "as is", no repairs.

2. 2026-03-27
   price $250,000 360-char remark

   Show marketing remark (360 chars)

   C A S H SALE ONLY Beautiful country property, hardwood and pines, unrestricted, Porch built across front of one story home. "Newer" barn about 3,000 sq ft, high and dry, no flooding, water well working fine. Walking ring, horse sheds with feed room, cross fenced and fenced, 5.5 acres. This property is being sold "as is", no repairs.

3. 2025-12-06
   price $289,000 360-char remark

   Show marketing remark (360 chars)

   C A S H SALE ONLY Beautiful country property, hardwood and pines, unrestricted, Porch built across front of one story home. "Newer" barn about 3,000 sq ft, high and dry, no flooding, water well working fine. Walking ring, horse sheds with feed room, cross fenced and fenced, 5.5 acres. This property is being sold "as is", no repairs.

4. 2025-11-28
   price $299,999 360-char remark

   Show marketing remark (360 chars)

   C A S H SALE ONLY Beautiful country property, hardwood and pines, unrestricted, Porch built across front of one story home. "Newer" barn about 3,000 sq ft, high and dry, no flooding, water well working fine. Walking ring, horse sheds with feed room, cross fenced and fenced, 5.5 acres. This property is being sold "as is", no repairs.

5. 2025-11-07
   listed $351,000 Active 360-char remark

   Show marketing remark (360 chars)

   C A S H SALE ONLY Beautiful country property, hardwood and pines, unrestricted, Porch built across front of one story home. "Newer" barn about 3,000 sq ft, high and dry, no flooding, water well working fine. Walking ring, horse sheds with feed room, cross fenced and fenced, 5.5 acres. This property is being sold "as is", no repairs.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,514 · $126/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,843 · $320/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,329/yr (+$194/mo · 153.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,032
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$1,514
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,683
• − Management: −$1,683
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$2,770
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$665
• After-tax cash flow: $1,501/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This manufactured home requires extensive repairs and updates to become move-in ready. Significant structural and interior damage necessitates a major renovation.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Significant damage
• Major roof — Rusty metal roof
• Major interior walls — No visible interior
• Major bathrooms — No visible bathrooms
• Major kitchen — No visible kitchen
• Major systems — No visible systems

Value-add opportunities

• Both exterior siding repair — Improves curb appeal and value
• Both roof replacement — Fixes major structural issue
• Both interior repairs — Enhances living space and value
• Both bathroom and kitchen updates — Improves functionality and value
• Both system upgrades — Enhances comfort and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Significant damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · Rusty metal roof	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · No visible interior	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathrooms · No visible bathrooms	Major	$15,000–50,000
kitchen · No visible kitchen	Major	$15,000–50,000
systems · No visible systems	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$90,000–300,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both exterior siding repair — Improves curb appeal and value ↑
• Both roof replacement — Fixes major structural issue ↑
• Both interior repairs — Enhances living space and value ↑
• Both bathroom and kitchen updates — Improves functionality and value ↑
• Both system upgrades — Enhances comfort and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Coldspring-Oakhurst CISD
• NCES district ID: 4814520
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,916
• Composite: 20.07/100
• National rank: #8653
• State rank: #732 of 826 in TX

Livability — Coldspring

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1357
• US rank: #23364

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,348

Population outlook (San Jacinto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,069 people
• By 2030: 29,750 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 30,714 · +5.7%
• By 2050: 31,010 · +6.7%
• By 2075: 31,616 · +8.8%
• By 2100: 29,874 · +2.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 13% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Jacinto

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.3) · D 17.0% · R 82.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.0pp toward R · 2008: -38.3pp · 2024: -65.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.3 2020: R+61.9 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+38.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -146.98%
• Current HPI: 199.0493
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-40.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-06 Price Changed $289,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-28 Price Changed $299,999 HARMLS
• 2025-11-07 Listed $351,000 HARMLS