1 bd · 1.0 ba ·
500 sqft ·
Built 1965
· Manufactured
· Pending
· 2 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,327/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$498
Tax + insurance
−$68
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$279
Net cashflow
$483/mo
Annual
$5,790/yr
Cap rate
12.39%
Cash-on-cash
21.79%
DSCR
1.97
1% rule
1.40%
Cash to close
$26,572
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $483 ($6k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $656 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 65/100 on livability (#90 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
Show Low Unified District (4393) (rural): math 32% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #89 of 249 in AZ (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: 895 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).
Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
Current owner paid $26k; list at $95k implies a 258% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 3.3% in Show Low — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-MERSFM5NSYBME3
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29