159 Roses Grove Rd

North Sea, NY 11976

$1,475,000A-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,892 sqft · Built 2002 · SingleFamily · Pending · 50 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $52,217/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,735
• Tax + insurance: −$982
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$10,966
• Net cashflow: $32,535/mo
• Annual: $390,415/yr
• Cap rate: 32.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 94.53%
• DSCR: 5.21
• 1% rule: 3.54%
• Cash to close: $413,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.48M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $33k ($390k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($52k rent vs $1.48M).
• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.43M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.43M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $137k of equity ($10k loan paydown + $127k appreciation (8.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,063 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Southampton Union Free School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #293 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Southampton High School (math 98%, 595 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 30% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+30.1%/yr); 52 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (8.6% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $413k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$220k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 32.8% vs local median 6.5% in North Sea — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $52,217/mo this rent would consume 348% of the median local household income ($180k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.