159 Roses Grove Rd · North Sea, NY 11976

$1,475,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,892 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 2002 0.54 ac lot Est $1453k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +6.8/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This fantastic traditional home awaits in a peaceful Southampton setting, close to beautiful bay beaches and to all of the Hamptons' charming towns and their restaurants and shops. Sited on over half an acre at the end of a deep flag lot, this lovely 2-story home greets you with a covered wraparound porch and beautifully maintained natural surroundings. Ready to greet friends and family, this forever home has 4 bedrooms, 3 full baths and 1,892+/- sq. ft. of living space. Meticulously taken care of by the original owner, this house has so much to love, with a wood-burning fireplace framed by custom stained glass windows, handsome hardwood floors, fully irrigated grounds and mature plantings.

Key facts

• 0.54 acre lot
• Built 2002
• Listed 50 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.48M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $33k ($390k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($52k rent vs $1.48M).
• Recommended offer: $1.43M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 32.8% vs local median 6.5% in North Sea — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,063 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Southampton Union Free School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #293 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Southampton High School (math 98%, 595 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 30% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+30.1%/yr); 52 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $52,217/mo this rent would consume 348% of the median local household income ($180k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $137k of equity ($10k loan paydown + $127k appreciation (8.6% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (8.6% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $413k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$220k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.43M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,430,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 32.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 94.53%
• DSCR: 5.21
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,453,056
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11 Deer Trail Rd	0.48mi	4/3.0	1,824 (-4%)	4mo	$1,675,000	$918	68
71 Bridies Path	0.37mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,000 (+6%)	13mo	$1,535,000	$768	58
81 Roses Grove Rd	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,838 (-3%)	24mo	$1,240,000	$675	50
10 Roses Grove Rd	0.67mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,016 (+7%)	9mo	$1,100,000	$546	43
4 Trail Ct	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,720 (-9%)	8mo	$1,400,000	$814	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.63% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.30×
• Total profit: $3,015,672
• Equity at exit: $1,184,507

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 20.15×
• Total profit: $7,910,341
• Equity at exit: $2,414,955

Cash invested: $413,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11976

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Rents YoY: 30.1%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $52,217 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,735
• Tax from tax record: −$367 /mo · $4,404/yr
• Insurance: −$615
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$10,966
• Net cashflow: $32,535

Break-even live

Break-even rent $11,034

Max offer price $1,475,000

Occupancy floor 33%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $368,750
• Closing costs: $44,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
76 Peconic Hills Dr Southampton, NY	3.0	2.5	2060	$38,000	$18.45	24d	1	0.48mi
1646 Noyack Rd Southampton, NY	4.0	3.0	2458	$40,000	$16.27	22d	1	0.67mi
9 Pine Tree Rd Southampton, NY	4.0	3.5	2000	$7,000	$3.50	43d	1	0.77mi
18 Bay View Rd Southampton, NY	3.0	3.0	2600	$50,000	$19.23	22d	1	0.87mi
112 Laurel Valley Dr Sag Harbor, NY	4.0	3.0	2400	$20,000	$8.33	1d	1	0.95mi
175 Warfield Way Southampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1572	$22,000	$13.99	43d	1	1.04mi
99 Turtle Cove Dr Southampton, NY	3.0	1.0	2205	$45,000	$20.41	43d	1	1.22mi
813 Edge of Woods Rd Water Mill, NY	3.0	2.0	1250	$6,500	$5.20	43d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2023-11-24
   soldstatus $1,300,000
2. 2023-08-10
   status Pending
3. 2023-06-21
   listed $1,475,000 Active
4. 2000-09-14
   soldstatus $435,000
5. 1998-08-19
   soldstatus $66,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,404 · $367/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $14,666 · $1,222/mo
• Expected delta: +$10,262/yr (+$855/mo · 233.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $626,601
• − Mortgage interest: −$82,623
• − Property taxes: −$4,404
• − Insurance: −$7,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$50,128
• − Management: −$50,128
• − Depreciation: −$42,909
• Taxable income: $389,034
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$93,368
• After-tax cash flow: $297,047/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southampton Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627540
• Math proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $85,977
• Composite: 47.9/100
• National rank: #2213
• State rank: #293 of 590 in NY

Livability — North Sea

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1063
• US rank: #21178

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Sea, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 2,952
• Household income: $180,250
• Rent vs Own: 6.8% rent · 93.2% own

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Salvadoran 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Scotch-Irish 7% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 4% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.63%
• Current HPI: 540.0967
• Rent YoY: ▲ 30.05%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1869.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2023-11-24 Sold (Public Records) $1,300,000 Public Records
• 2023-08-10 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-21 Listed $1,475,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-09-14 Sold (Public Records) $435,000 Public Records
• 1998-08-19 Sold (Public Records) $66,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2022): $4,404 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.