2512 Timber Dr

Cedar Falls, IA 50613

$219,900C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,025 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Pending · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,917/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax + insurance: −$323
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $38/mo
• Annual: $457/yr
• Cap rate: 6.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.74%
• DSCR: 1.03
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $61,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $38 ($457/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (12.8% below list).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $192k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#60 in IA, #1,357 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, commute F.
• Cedar Falls Community School District (urban): math 76% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #45 of 289 in IA (top 16%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 387 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 287 units permitted in Black Hawk County in 2024 (67 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Black Hawk County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.1% in Cedar Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.