2512 Timber Dr · Cedar Falls, IA 50613

$219,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,025 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1955 0.33 ac lot $109/sqft · 21% below area Est $261k · 16% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• Schools +6.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked in a well loved neighborhood, this home offers a peaceful, nature filled lifestyle. Backing right up to Hartman Reserve, your “neighbors” include deer, turkeys, birds, and plenty of bold squirrels. You’re just seconds from trails, nature, and that quiet, tucked away feel people are always looking for. Inside, the kitchen offers ample cabinetry, a spacious pantry closet, and a casual dining space with a bay window overlooking the front yard. Morning coffee hits a little different here, especially if you toss out some peanuts and make a few squirrel friends. The main floor living room features a fireplace, built in shelving, and flows into a formal dining area, with large windows framing the backyard and giving you a front row seat to the wildlife. Three spacious bedrooms and a full bathroom round out the main level. Downstairs, you’ll find a den with a second fireplace, great natural light, and built-ins making it an easy spot to unwind with a good book or relax at the end of the day. Downstairs is complete with bathroom/laundry room, storage and mechanicals, along with access to the attached one stall garage. Outside picture evenings grilling, watching the trees blow in the breeze, and catching glimpses of wildlife as the sun goes down. Opportunities like this don’t come around often in this location. If wildlife, trails, and a little peace and quiet are part of your daily plans, this is the house for you. Bring your ideas, make it your own, and enjoy a setting that’s hard to beat. Property is being sold "AS IS" * Offer Subject to Estate attorneys review within 1 business day of acceptance.

Key facts

• Casual dining space
• Formal dining area
• 0.33 acre lot

Tags

• KITCHEN OFFERS AMPLE CABINETRY
• SPACIOUS PANTRY CLOSET
• CASUAL DINING SPACE
• MAIN FLOOR LIVING ROOM
• FIREPLACE BUILT IN SHELVING
• FORMAL DINING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $38 ($457/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (12.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.1% in Cedar Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#60 in IA, #1,357 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, commute F.
• Cedar Falls Community School District (urban): math 76% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #45 of 289 in IA (top 16%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 387 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 287 units permitted in Black Hawk County in 2024 (67 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Black Hawk County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $191,672 (12.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.74%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $261,469
• List price: $219,900
• Delta: -15.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2512 Timber Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,900 (-6%)	0mo	$180,000	$95	89
2203 Grand Blvd	0.22mi	3/1.5	1,864 (-8%)	1mo	$325,000	$174	74
2603 Alameda St	0.40mi	3/2.5	2,133 (+5%)	1mo	$248,485	$116	70
2117 Rownd St	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,879 (-7%)	0mo	$310,000	$165	68
1424 W Ridgewood Dr	0.36mi	3/1.5	2,150 (+6%)	4mo	$280,000	$130	68
1830 Madison St	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,920 (-5%)	6mo	$255,000	$133	62
2804 Neola St	0.52mi	3/2.0	2,162 (+7%)	7mo	$314,800	$146	58
2005 Parrish St	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,186 (+8%)	8mo	$329,900	$151	57
3103 Alameda St	0.69mi	3/1.0	2,154 (+6%)	3mo	$235,000	$109	50
1916 Ashland Avenue Ave	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,735 (-14%)	4mo	$228,000	$131	46
1609 Rainbow Dr	0.57mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,764 (-13%)	5mo	$237,000	$134	43
313 Longview Dr	0.75mi	3/1.0	1,882 (-7%)	9mo	$245,000	$130	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-35,173
• Equity at exit: $32,788

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-35,400
• Equity at exit: $19,013

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 50613

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 387
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,917 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$231 /mo · $2,776/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $38

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,869

Max offer price $219,900

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3856 Jay Ln Waterloo, IA	3.0	3.5	1520	$1,975	$1.30	43d	1	1.04mi
1915 Mayfair St Waterloo, IA	4.0	2.5	2300	$2,100	$0.91	43d	1	1.05mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 1672-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1672 chars)

   Tucked in a well loved neighborhood, this home offers a peaceful, nature filled lifestyle. Backing right up to Hartman Reserve, your “neighbors” include deer, turkeys, birds, and plenty of bold squirrels. You’re just seconds from trails, nature, and that quiet, tucked away feel people are always looking for. Inside, the kitchen offers ample cabinetry, a spacious pantry closet, and a casual dining space with a bay window overlooking the front yard. Morning coffee hits a little different here, especially if you toss out some peanuts and make a few squirrel friends. The main floor living room features a fireplace, built in shelving, and flows into a formal dining area, with large windows framing the backyard and giving you a front row seat to the wildlife. Three spacious bedrooms and a full bathroom round out the main level. Downstairs, you’ll find a den with a second fireplace, great natural light, and built-ins making it an easy spot to unwind with a good book or relax at the end of the day. Downstairs is complete with bathroom/laundry room, storage and mechanicals, along with access to the attached one stall garage. Outside picture evenings grilling, watching the trees blow in the breeze, and catching glimpses of wildlife as the sun goes down. Opportunities like this don’t come around often in this location. If wildlife, trails, and a little peace and quiet are part of your daily plans, this is the house for you. Bring your ideas, make it your own, and enjoy a setting that’s hard to beat. Property is being sold "AS IS" * Offer Subject to Estate attorneys review within 1 business day of acceptance.

2. 2026-04-23
   price $219,900 1672-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1672 chars)

   Tucked in a well loved neighborhood, this home offers a peaceful, nature filled lifestyle. Backing right up to Hartman Reserve, your “neighbors” include deer, turkeys, birds, and plenty of bold squirrels. You’re just seconds from trails, nature, and that quiet, tucked away feel people are always looking for. Inside, the kitchen offers ample cabinetry, a spacious pantry closet, and a casual dining space with a bay window overlooking the front yard. Morning coffee hits a little different here, especially if you toss out some peanuts and make a few squirrel friends. The main floor living room features a fireplace, built in shelving, and flows into a formal dining area, with large windows framing the backyard and giving you a front row seat to the wildlife. Three spacious bedrooms and a full bathroom round out the main level. Downstairs, you’ll find a den with a second fireplace, great natural light, and built-ins making it an easy spot to unwind with a good book or relax at the end of the day. Downstairs is complete with bathroom/laundry room, storage and mechanicals, along with access to the attached one stall garage. Outside picture evenings grilling, watching the trees blow in the breeze, and catching glimpses of wildlife as the sun goes down. Opportunities like this don’t come around often in this location. If wildlife, trails, and a little peace and quiet are part of your daily plans, this is the house for you. Bring your ideas, make it your own, and enjoy a setting that’s hard to beat. Property is being sold "AS IS" * Offer Subject to Estate attorneys review within 1 business day of acceptance.

3. 2026-03-31
   listed $230,000 Active 1672-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1672 chars)

   Tucked in a well loved neighborhood, this home offers a peaceful, nature filled lifestyle. Backing right up to Hartman Reserve, your “neighbors” include deer, turkeys, birds, and plenty of bold squirrels. You’re just seconds from trails, nature, and that quiet, tucked away feel people are always looking for. Inside, the kitchen offers ample cabinetry, a spacious pantry closet, and a casual dining space with a bay window overlooking the front yard. Morning coffee hits a little different here, especially if you toss out some peanuts and make a few squirrel friends. The main floor living room features a fireplace, built in shelving, and flows into a formal dining area, with large windows framing the backyard and giving you a front row seat to the wildlife. Three spacious bedrooms and a full bathroom round out the main level. Downstairs, you’ll find a den with a second fireplace, great natural light, and built-ins making it an easy spot to unwind with a good book or relax at the end of the day. Downstairs is complete with bathroom/laundry room, storage and mechanicals, along with access to the attached one stall garage. Outside picture evenings grilling, watching the trees blow in the breeze, and catching glimpses of wildlife as the sun goes down. Opportunities like this don’t come around often in this location. If wildlife, trails, and a little peace and quiet are part of your daily plans, this is the house for you. Bring your ideas, make it your own, and enjoy a setting that’s hard to beat. Property is being sold "AS IS" * Offer Subject to Estate attorneys review within 1 business day of acceptance.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,776 · $231/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,114 · $260/mo
• Expected delta: +$338/yr (+$28/mo · 12.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥101°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,001
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$2,776
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,840
• − Management: −$1,840
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable loss: −$3,270
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$785
• After-tax cash flow: $1,242/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cedar Falls Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1906510
• Math proficiency: 76% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,634
• Composite: 65.93/100
• National rank: #443
• State rank: #45 of 289 in IA

Livability — Cedar Falls

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #60
• US rank: #1357

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cedar Falls, IA
• County: Black Hawk County · 112,933 people
• City population: 43,867
• Metro: Waterloo-Cedar Falls, IA
• Population (ZIP): 43,867
• Household income: $78,503
• Rent vs Own: 33.9% rent · 66.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1514.0

Population outlook (Black Hawk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 139,716 people
• By 2030: 142,853 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 147,843 · +5.8%
• By 2050: 153,247 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 167,977 · +20.2%
• By 2100: 177,320 · +26.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Asian 3% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Italian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Black Hawk

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 48.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.3pp toward R · 2008: 22.4pp · 2024: 1.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.2 2020: D+9.0 2016: D+7.3 2012: D+20.0 2008: D+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -175.51%
• Current HPI: 169.0591
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.97%
• Metro: Waterloo-Cedar Falls, IA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

-4.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — NEIRBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $219,900 NEIRBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-03-31 Listed $230,000 NEIRBR as distributed by MLS GRID

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,776 · -0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.