12656 Centerville

Butte Creek Canyon, CA 95928

$329,900F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,341 sqft · Built 2023 · Manufactured · Active · 209 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,798/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,730
• Tax + insurance: −$394
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $-704/mo
• Annual: $-8,445/yr
• Cap rate: 3.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.14%
• DSCR: 0.59
• 1% rule: 0.55%
• Cash to close: $92,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $330k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-704 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (37.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (45.5% below list).
• It's been on market 209 days — a 12% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $180k (45.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#952 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Chico Unified (urban): math 40% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #117 of 517 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 139 active listings in the ZIP; 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $109k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $330k implies a 725% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 209 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.