12656 Centerville · Butte Creek Canyon, CA 95928

$329,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,341 sqft · Manufactured public records · 209 Days on market

Built 2023 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Would you like to live with peace and serenity, dramatic views and the sound of a creek everyday. .. ? What if the 1 acre property also included a beautiful 2 year old, 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath home, secure storage building, deer-protected fenced garden and a very cool "cabin" that could make an awesome guest quarters or man-cave. .? If that sounds like peace on earth, you must see 12656 Centerville Road in Chico's highly desired Butte Creek Canyon. .! The home was built in 2022 in an indoor facility of the same materials that all houses include so it was not subject to weather conditions during construction. It was placed on the property in 2023 after the Camp Fire claimed the original house. The home has a permanent foundation system that allows it to have the same long-term conventional financing that on-site built homes qualify for. The 3 bedroom, 2 bath home is beautiful with an open efficient floor plan that even provides a walk-in closet for every bedroom. The spacious "cooks delight" kitchen features stainless steel appliances and a farm-style sink, numerous beautiful cabinets and countertops. You will enjoy that the grounds are well-maintained with a "cabin" that was once habitable and has received e lot of repairs but also has more needed with some materials on-site. Look at the photos and then call your favorite Chico real estate agent for a showing and maybe be in your new beautiful home for Christmas or a wonderful spring. .! Property is 7.6 miles or 15 minutes from the Raley's on Notre Dame Blvd.

Key facts

• Cabin guest quarters
• 1 acre property
• 1 acre lot

Tags

• 1 ACRE PROPERTY
• SECURE STORAGE BUILDING
• DEER PROTECTED FENCED GARDEN
• CABIN GUEST QUARTERS
• PERMANENT FOUNDATION SYSTEM
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-704 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (37.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (45.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (45.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#952 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Chico Unified (urban): math 40% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #117 of 517 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 139 active listings in the ZIP; 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 209 days — a 12% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $109k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $330k implies a 725% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,801 (45.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 209 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.14%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 15.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-97,567
• Equity at exit: $49,189

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.51×
• Total profit: $-139,720
• Equity at exit: $28,524

Cash invested: $92,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95928

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 139
• Price-to-rent: 15.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,798 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,730
• Tax from tax record: −$257 /mo · $3,080/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $-704

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,689

Max offer price $205,580

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,475
• Closing costs: $9,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $329,900 Active 209 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $329,900 Active 208 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $329,900 Active 207 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $329,900 Active 206 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $329,900 Active 205 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $329,900 Active 203 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $329,900 Active 202 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $329,900 Active Under Contract 200 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $329,900 Active Under Contract 198 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $329,900 Active Under Contract 197 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $329,900 Active Under Contract 194 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $329,900 Active Under Contract 192 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $329,900 Active Under Contract 191 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $329,900 Active Under Contract 190 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $329,900 Active Under Contract 189 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    historical Active Under Contract 1561-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1561 chars)

    Would you like to live with peace and serenity, dramatic views and the sound of a creek everyday. .. ? What if the 1 acre property also included a beautiful 2 year old, 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath home, secure storage building, deer-protected fenced garden and a very cool "cabin" that could make an awesome guest quarters or man-cave. .? If that sounds like peace on earth, you must see 12656 Centerville Road in Chico's highly desired Butte Creek Canyon. .! The home was built in 2022 in an indoor facility of the same materials that all houses include so it was not subject to weather conditions during construction. It was placed on the property in 2023 after the Camp Fire claimed the original house. The home has a permanent foundation system that allows it to have the same long-term conventional financing that on-site built homes qualify for. The 3 bedroom, 2 bath home is beautiful with an open efficient floor plan that even provides a walk-in closet for every bedroom. The spacious "cooks delight" kitchen features stainless steel appliances and a farm-style sink, numerous beautiful cabinets and countertops. You will enjoy that the grounds are well-maintained with a "cabin" that was once habitable and has received e lot of repairs but also has more needed with some materials on-site. Look at the photos and then call your favorite Chico real estate agent for a showing and maybe be in your new beautiful home for Christmas or a wonderful spring. .! Property is 7.6 miles or 15 minutes from the Raley's on Notre Dame Blvd.

17. 2026-05-16
    price $329,900 1561-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1561 chars)

    Would you like to live with peace and serenity, dramatic views and the sound of a creek everyday. .. ? What if the 1 acre property also included a beautiful 2 year old, 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath home, secure storage building, deer-protected fenced garden and a very cool "cabin" that could make an awesome guest quarters or man-cave. .? If that sounds like peace on earth, you must see 12656 Centerville Road in Chico's highly desired Butte Creek Canyon. .! The home was built in 2022 in an indoor facility of the same materials that all houses include so it was not subject to weather conditions during construction. It was placed on the property in 2023 after the Camp Fire claimed the original house. The home has a permanent foundation system that allows it to have the same long-term conventional financing that on-site built homes qualify for. The 3 bedroom, 2 bath home is beautiful with an open efficient floor plan that even provides a walk-in closet for every bedroom. The spacious "cooks delight" kitchen features stainless steel appliances and a farm-style sink, numerous beautiful cabinets and countertops. You will enjoy that the grounds are well-maintained with a "cabin" that was once habitable and has received e lot of repairs but also has more needed with some materials on-site. Look at the photos and then call your favorite Chico real estate agent for a showing and maybe be in your new beautiful home for Christmas or a wonderful spring. .! Property is 7.6 miles or 15 minutes from the Raley's on Notre Dame Blvd.

18. 2026-03-27
    price $349,900 1561-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1561 chars)

    Would you like to live with peace and serenity, dramatic views and the sound of a creek everyday. .. ? What if the 1 acre property also included a beautiful 2 year old, 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath home, secure storage building, deer-protected fenced garden and a very cool "cabin" that could make an awesome guest quarters or man-cave. .? If that sounds like peace on earth, you must see 12656 Centerville Road in Chico's highly desired Butte Creek Canyon. .! The home was built in 2022 in an indoor facility of the same materials that all houses include so it was not subject to weather conditions during construction. It was placed on the property in 2023 after the Camp Fire claimed the original house. The home has a permanent foundation system that allows it to have the same long-term conventional financing that on-site built homes qualify for. The 3 bedroom, 2 bath home is beautiful with an open efficient floor plan that even provides a walk-in closet for every bedroom. The spacious "cooks delight" kitchen features stainless steel appliances and a farm-style sink, numerous beautiful cabinets and countertops. You will enjoy that the grounds are well-maintained with a "cabin" that was once habitable and has received e lot of repairs but also has more needed with some materials on-site. Look at the photos and then call your favorite Chico real estate agent for a showing and maybe be in your new beautiful home for Christmas or a wonderful spring. .! Property is 7.6 miles or 15 minutes from the Raley's on Notre Dame Blvd.

19. 2026-01-08
    price $399,900 1561-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1561 chars)

    Would you like to live with peace and serenity, dramatic views and the sound of a creek everyday. .. ? What if the 1 acre property also included a beautiful 2 year old, 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath home, secure storage building, deer-protected fenced garden and a very cool "cabin" that could make an awesome guest quarters or man-cave. .? If that sounds like peace on earth, you must see 12656 Centerville Road in Chico's highly desired Butte Creek Canyon. .! The home was built in 2022 in an indoor facility of the same materials that all houses include so it was not subject to weather conditions during construction. It was placed on the property in 2023 after the Camp Fire claimed the original house. The home has a permanent foundation system that allows it to have the same long-term conventional financing that on-site built homes qualify for. The 3 bedroom, 2 bath home is beautiful with an open efficient floor plan that even provides a walk-in closet for every bedroom. The spacious "cooks delight" kitchen features stainless steel appliances and a farm-style sink, numerous beautiful cabinets and countertops. You will enjoy that the grounds are well-maintained with a "cabin" that was once habitable and has received e lot of repairs but also has more needed with some materials on-site. Look at the photos and then call your favorite Chico real estate agent for a showing and maybe be in your new beautiful home for Christmas or a wonderful spring. .! Property is 7.6 miles or 15 minutes from the Raley's on Notre Dame Blvd.

20. 2025-12-28
    price $419,900 1561-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1561 chars)

    Would you like to live with peace and serenity, dramatic views and the sound of a creek everyday. .. ? What if the 1 acre property also included a beautiful 2 year old, 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath home, secure storage building, deer-protected fenced garden and a very cool "cabin" that could make an awesome guest quarters or man-cave. .? If that sounds like peace on earth, you must see 12656 Centerville Road in Chico's highly desired Butte Creek Canyon. .! The home was built in 2022 in an indoor facility of the same materials that all houses include so it was not subject to weather conditions during construction. It was placed on the property in 2023 after the Camp Fire claimed the original house. The home has a permanent foundation system that allows it to have the same long-term conventional financing that on-site built homes qualify for. The 3 bedroom, 2 bath home is beautiful with an open efficient floor plan that even provides a walk-in closet for every bedroom. The spacious "cooks delight" kitchen features stainless steel appliances and a farm-style sink, numerous beautiful cabinets and countertops. You will enjoy that the grounds are well-maintained with a "cabin" that was once habitable and has received e lot of repairs but also has more needed with some materials on-site. Look at the photos and then call your favorite Chico real estate agent for a showing and maybe be in your new beautiful home for Christmas or a wonderful spring. .! Property is 7.6 miles or 15 minutes from the Raley's on Notre Dame Blvd.

21. 2025-12-19
    status Active 1561-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1561 chars)

    Would you like to live with peace and serenity, dramatic views and the sound of a creek everyday. .. ? What if the 1 acre property also included a beautiful 2 year old, 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath home, secure storage building, deer-protected fenced garden and a very cool "cabin" that could make an awesome guest quarters or man-cave. .? If that sounds like peace on earth, you must see 12656 Centerville Road in Chico's highly desired Butte Creek Canyon. .! The home was built in 2022 in an indoor facility of the same materials that all houses include so it was not subject to weather conditions during construction. It was placed on the property in 2023 after the Camp Fire claimed the original house. The home has a permanent foundation system that allows it to have the same long-term conventional financing that on-site built homes qualify for. The 3 bedroom, 2 bath home is beautiful with an open efficient floor plan that even provides a walk-in closet for every bedroom. The spacious "cooks delight" kitchen features stainless steel appliances and a farm-style sink, numerous beautiful cabinets and countertops. You will enjoy that the grounds are well-maintained with a "cabin" that was once habitable and has received e lot of repairs but also has more needed with some materials on-site. Look at the photos and then call your favorite Chico real estate agent for a showing and maybe be in your new beautiful home for Christmas or a wonderful spring. .! Property is 7.6 miles or 15 minutes from the Raley's on Notre Dame Blvd.

22. 2025-11-21
    listed $439,000 Active 1561-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1561 chars)

    Would you like to live with peace and serenity, dramatic views and the sound of a creek everyday. .. ? What if the 1 acre property also included a beautiful 2 year old, 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath home, secure storage building, deer-protected fenced garden and a very cool "cabin" that could make an awesome guest quarters or man-cave. .? If that sounds like peace on earth, you must see 12656 Centerville Road in Chico's highly desired Butte Creek Canyon. .! The home was built in 2022 in an indoor facility of the same materials that all houses include so it was not subject to weather conditions during construction. It was placed on the property in 2023 after the Camp Fire claimed the original house. The home has a permanent foundation system that allows it to have the same long-term conventional financing that on-site built homes qualify for. The 3 bedroom, 2 bath home is beautiful with an open efficient floor plan that even provides a walk-in closet for every bedroom. The spacious "cooks delight" kitchen features stainless steel appliances and a farm-style sink, numerous beautiful cabinets and countertops. You will enjoy that the grounds are well-maintained with a "cabin" that was once habitable and has received e lot of repairs but also has more needed with some materials on-site. Look at the photos and then call your favorite Chico real estate agent for a showing and maybe be in your new beautiful home for Christmas or a wonderful spring. .! Property is 7.6 miles or 15 minutes from the Raley's on Notre Dame Blvd.

23. 2024-10-18
    soldstatus $40,000
24. 2022-04-15
    soldstatus $75,000 Closed Sale
25. 2022-04-15
    soldstatus $125,000
26. 2022-03-13
    status Pending Sale
27. 2022-03-13
    status Pending Sale
28. 2022-03-02
    listed $75,000 Active
29. 2022-03-02
    listed $75,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,080 · $257/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,080 · $257/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 27% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 9 d/yr ≥102°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 35 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,576
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,480
• − Property taxes: −$3,080
• − Insurance: −$1,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,726
• − Management: −$1,726
• − Depreciation: −$9,597
• Taxable loss: −$14,682
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,524
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,921/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chico Unified
• NCES district ID: 0608370
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 14.00%
• Median HH income: $46,223
• Composite: 46.45/100
• National rank: #2443
• State rank: #117 of 517 in CA

Livability — Butte Creek Canyon

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #952
• US rank: #24435

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Butte Creek Canyon, CA
• County: Butte County · 175,030 people
• Metro: Chico, CA
• Population (ZIP): 37,409
• Household income: $64,949
• Rent vs Own: 57.6% rent · 42.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 3612.0

Population outlook (Butte County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,527 people
• By 2030: 243,804 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 253,899 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 262,561 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 283,709 · +19.4%
• By 2100: 282,689 · +19.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 12% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Butte

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.8% · R 49.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+1.7 2016: R+4.0 2012: R+3.9 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -313.43%
• Current HPI: 251.1819
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.43%
• Metro: Chico, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+339.9% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $329,900 CRMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $349,900 CRMLS
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $399,900 CRMLS
• 2025-12-28 Price Changed $419,900 CRMLS
• 2025-12-19 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-11-21 Listed $439,000 CRMLS
• 2024-10-18 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 2022-04-15 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2022-04-15 Sold (MLS) $75,000 CRMLS
• 2022-03-13 Pending — CRMLS
• 2022-03-13 Pending — CRMLS
• 2022-03-02 Listed $75,000 CRMLS
• 2022-03-02 Listed $75,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,080 · +9.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.