17738 Kings Park Ln

Houston, TX 77058

$104,900A-

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,372 sqft · Built 1979 · Townhouse · Pending · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,669/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$550
• Tax + insurance: −$335
• HOA: −$42
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $392/mo
• Annual: $4,701/yr
• Cap rate: 10.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.01%
• DSCR: 1.71
• 1% rule: 1.59%
• Cash to close: $29,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $105k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $392 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $102k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.2%/yr); year-one equity from $725 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Clear Creek ISD (suburban): math 48% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #114 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Armand Bayou El (math 41% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,283 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 500 students, 50% FRL); Space Center Int (math 31% / reading 44%, grade F, #736 of 1,662 statewide, top 45%, 827 students, 57% FRL); Clear Creek H S (math 51% / reading 54%, grade C-, #444 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 2,400 students, 0% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 134 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $105k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-1.2% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.