17738 Kings Park Ln · Houston, TX 77058

$104,900

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,372 sqft · Townhouse public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1979 2.41 ac lot $76/sqft · 36% below area Est $163k · 36% under $42/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This is an opportunity to make this property the townhome of your dreams in a gated neighborhood that is conveniently located to restaurants, shopping, and more. One of largest floor plans in the community featuring a good size living room with fireplace, dining area and breakfast room, laundry room indoors, 2 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms upstairs, 2 car covered carport and storage closet. Property is being sold AS-IS.

Key facts

• Gated neighborhood
• Breakfast room
• Laundry room indoors

Tags

• GATED NEIGHBORHOOD
• GOOD SIZE LIVING ROOM
• FIREPLACE
• DINING AREA
• BREAKFAST ROOM
• LAUNDRY ROOM INDOORS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community features: community pool, curbs, gutters
• HOA & community: Kings Park TOA; Association amenities include pool and gated community; Association fee paid annually (fee includes insurance, structural maintenance, and recreation facilities)

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; Additional parking space; Carport for 2 vehicles
• Security: Security gate
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; 2-story home; Built in 1979; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Storage; Concrete road surface; Association pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven and electric range; Microwave; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms (both on the second floor) — approx. 16x11 and 13x14
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace (1); Breakfast bar; Laminate counters; Pantry; Tub with shower; Window treatments / coverings; Combined living and dining area; 6 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $390 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $102k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Clear Creek ISD (suburban): math 48% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #114 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Armand Bayou El (math 41% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,283 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 500 students, 50% FRL); Space Center Int (math 31% / reading 44%, grade F, #736 of 1,662 statewide, top 45%, 827 students, 57% FRL); Clear Creek H S (math 51% / reading 54%, grade C-, #444 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 2,400 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 134 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.2%/yr); year-one equity from $725 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-1.2% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $105k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,753 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.92%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $162,655
• List price: $104,900
• Delta: -35.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17822 Kings Park Ln	0.08mi	2/2.5	1,350 (-2%)	14mo	$169,900	$126	82
17746 Kings Park Ln	0.01mi	2/2.5	1,282 (-7%)	13mo	$183,000	$143	78
17732 Kings Park Ln	0.00mi	2/2.5	1,282 (-7%)	21mo	$135,000	$105	71
1210 Saxony Ln	0.43mi	2/2.5	1,512 (+10%)	4mo	$247,000	$163	59
18112 Heritage Ln #8112	0.73mi	2/2.5	1,360 (-1%)	11mo	$185,000	$136	56
18202 Vinland Dr #8202	0.74mi	2/2.5	1,360 (-1%)	11mo	$179,000	$132	55
18214 Heritage Ln #8214	0.73mi	2/2.5	1,280 (-7%)	3mo	$174,500	$136	52
803 Knights Bridge Ln Unit A	0.55mi	2/2.5	1,491 (+9%)	14mo	$220,000	$148	48
18114 Heritage Ln #8114	0.73mi	2/2.5	1,280 (-7%)	16mo	$169,900	$133	42
18617 Egret Bay Blvd #1101	0.72mi	2/2.5	1,260 (-8%)	16mo	$165,000	$131	40
1701 San Sebastian Ln #1701	0.73mi	2/2.5	1,280 (-7%)	20mo	$169,000	$132	38
18204 Heritage Ln #8204	0.73mi	2/2.5	1,280 (-7%)	22mo	$160,000	$125	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.22% appreciation · 1.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $14,241
• Equity at exit: $24,228

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $45,257
• Equity at exit: $24,520

Cash invested: $29,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77058

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,666 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$550
• Tax from tax record: −$291 /mo · $3,492/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $390

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,173

Max offer price $104,900

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $449	-5% $419	+0% $390	+5% $360	+10% $330
Rent	-10% $258	-5% $324	+0% $390	+5% $455	+10% $521
Rate	-1.0pp $442	-0.5pp $416	base $390	+0.5pp $362	+1.0pp $335

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,225
• Closing costs: $3,147
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1235 E Nasa Pkwy Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1252	$2,260	$1.80	0d	33	0.01mi
1315 E NASA Pkwy Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1214	$1,358	$1.12	0d	36	0.10mi
1241 E Nasa Pkwy Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	941	$1,695	$1.80	45d	1	0.14mi
1110 El Camino Village Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1143	$1,372	$1.20	0d	69	0.21mi
17700 El Camino Real Unit 3047 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1236	$1,600	$1.29	0d	1	0.41mi
17700 El Camino Real Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	893	$1,164	$1.30	0d	1	0.41mi
1400 El Camino Village Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1060	$1,957	$1.85	0d	33	0.41mi
17632 El Camino Real Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	893	$964	$1.08	26d	1	0.47mi
17700 El Camino Real Houston, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	827	$1,400	$1.69	21d	17	0.47mi
17700 El Camino Real Unit 17733 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1236	$1,549	$1.25	0d	1	0.48mi
17700 El Camino Real Unit 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	893	$1,139	$1.28	9d	1	0.48mi
17700 El Camino Real Unit 2162 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	893	$1,139	$1.28	7d	1	0.48mi
17700 El Camino Real Unit 17757 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	893	$1,123	$1.26	0d	1	0.48mi
18101 Point Lookout Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$2,930	$2.93	22d	15	0.53mi
18107 Point Lookout Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1422	$2,370	$1.67	45d	1	0.53mi
801 E Nasa Road 1 Webster, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	827	$1,440	$1.74	45d	39	0.55mi
18101 Point Lookout Dr Unit 2174 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1224	$1,974	$1.61	0d	1	0.56mi
18101 Point Lookout Dr Apt 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1224	$1,990	$1.63	9d	1	0.56mi
18101 Point Lookout Dr Unit 18134 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1422	$2,479	$1.74	0d	1	0.56mi
18101 Point Lookout Dr Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1422	$2,530	$1.78	0d	1	0.56mi
18101 Point Lookout Dr Unit 18138 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1224	$1,880	$1.54	45d	1	0.56mi
18101 Point Lookout Dr Unit 156 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1336	$2,630	$1.97	0d	1	0.56mi
18101 Point Lookout Dr Unit 424 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1224	$1,990	$1.63	7d	1	0.59mi
18707 Egret Bay Blvd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1283	$1,849	$1.44	3d	10	0.74mi
18713 Egret Bay Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1265	$1,549	$1.22	45d	1	0.76mi
200 Water St Webster, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1094	$1,734	$1.59	0d	38	0.78mi
1300 Gemini St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	956	$1,949	$2.04	0d	30	0.85mi
18296 Upper Bay Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	990	$1,145	$1.16	45d	1	0.86mi
18296 Upper Bay Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,380	$1.23	26d	1	0.86mi
18296 Upper Bay Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	990	$1,145	$1.16	23d	1	0.86mi
206 Water St Unit 26103 Webster, TX	2.0	2.0	1122	$1,540	$1.37	45d	1	0.89mi
501 Sarah Deel Dr Unit 538 Webster, TX	2.0	2.0	1275	$1,838	$1.44	0d	1	0.90mi
501 Sarah Deel Dr Apt 424 Webster, TX	2.0	2.0	1275	$1,854	$1.45	9d	1	0.90mi
501 Sarah Deel Dr Unit 2047 Webster, TX	2.0	2.0	1275	$1,879	$1.47	0d	1	0.91mi
501 Sarah Deel Dr Unit 2047 Webster, TX	2.0	2.0	1275	$1,889	$1.48	12d	1	0.91mi
501 Sarah Deel Dr Webster, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	931	$2,406	$2.58	12d	5	0.91mi
2041 San Sebastian Ct Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1020	$1,194	$1.17	12d	1	0.93mi
2041 San Sebastian Ct Unit 2162 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1020	$1,159	$1.14	9d	1	0.93mi
2041 San Sebastian Ct Unit 2074 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1348	$1,473	$1.09	0d	1	0.93mi
2041 San Sebastian Ct Unit 2098 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1020	$1,143	$1.12	0d	1	0.93mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $104,900 Pending 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $104,900 Pending 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $104,900 Pending 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $104,900 Pending 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $104,900 Pending 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $104,900 Pending 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $104,900 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   status $104,900 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $104,900 Pending 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $104,900 Pending 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $104,900 Pending 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $104,900 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $104,900 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $104,900 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $104,900 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $104,900 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-05-17
    status Active 423-char remark
18. 2026-05-16
    status Pending 423-char remark
19. 2026-05-13
    listed $104,900 Active 423-char remark
20. 2026-02-09
    soldstatus
21. 2005-07-29
    soldstatus
22. 2005-04-30
    historical
23. 2005-04-08
    listed $84,900
24. 1996-06-01
    soldstatus $42,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,492 · $291/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,492 · $291/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 54% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,995
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,876
• − Property taxes: −$3,492
• − Insurance: −$524
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,600
• − Management: −$1,600
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$3,052
• Taxable income: $3,348
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$804
• After-tax cash flow: $3,871/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clear Creek ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814280
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $80,240
• Composite: 46.49/100
• National rank: #2431
• State rank: #114 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,850
• Household income: $68,722
• Rent vs Own: 68.8% rent · 31.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1147.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 15% Asian 10% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 5% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.22%
• Current HPI: 225.0251
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.92%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+149.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-06-09 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-06-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-17 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-05-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $104,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-07-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-04-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2005-04-08 Listed $84,900 HARMLS
• 1996-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,492 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.