9082 S Starlight Ln

Knik-Fairview, AK 99623

$99,900B-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · Built 1965 · Other · Pending · 85 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,510/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$80
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $589/mo
• Annual: $7,070/yr
• Cap rate: 13.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.28%
• DSCR: 2.12
• 1% rule: 1.51%
• Cash to close: $27,972

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $589 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $94k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 414 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 11 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 3.3% in Knik-Fairview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.