9082 S Starlight Ln · Knik-Fairview, AK 99623

$99,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · Other public records · 85 Days on market

Built 1965 0.92 ac lot $111/sqft · 62% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Perched on nearly a full acre in Wasilla, this classic 1965 Alaskan log cabin has already had several important repairs completed and is ready for its next chapter. Major systems are in place, including natural gas, electric, private well, and septic, giving you a solid foundation from which to work. Inside, you'll find 896 square feet with one bedroom, a 3/4 bath, and a striking double rock fire- Inside, you'll find 896 square feet with one bedroom, one full bath, and a striking double rock fireplace that anchors the living space with true cabin character. Recent improvements have addressed key functional items, while cosmetic updates have begun, leaving room for you to bring your own vision and finishes to life. The metal roof, log construction, and elevated setting offer that rustic Alaska feel buyers love. Outside, the property features a front deck, fenced area for animals, and usable land with hilly topography and maintained gravel access. This is not a polished home, it is an opportunity. Whether you are looking for a recreational cabin, rental potential, or an affordable path into homeownership, this is a project with momentum already started. Reach out today for a private showing. The seller cannot finance, and the heat if off. This property is sold as-is. Bring your tools, your ideas, and your ambition.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Front deck
• Log cabin

Tags

• LOG CABIN
• DOUBLE ROCK FIREPLACE
• METAL ROOF
• FRONT DECK
• FENCED AREA FOR ANIMALS
• USABLE LAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $589 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 3.3% in Knik-Fairview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 414 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $93,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.28%
• DSCR: 2.12
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $261,679
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -61.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $21,566
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.43×
• Total profit: $68,042
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99623

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 414
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,510 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $461/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $589

Break-even live

Break-even rent $764

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $646	-5% $617	+0% $589	+5% $561	+10% $533
Rent	-10% $470	-5% $530	+0% $589	+5% $649	+10% $708
Rate	-1.0pp $639	-0.5pp $615	base $589	+0.5pp $563	+1.0pp $537

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-03-14
   price $99,900 1338-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1338 chars)

   Perched on nearly a full acre in Wasilla, this classic 1965 Alaskan log cabin has already had several important repairs completed and is ready for its next chapter. Major systems are in place, including natural gas, electric, private well, and septic, giving you a solid foundation from which to work. Inside, you'll find 896 square feet with one bedroom, a 3/4 bath, and a striking double rock fire- Inside, you'll find 896 square feet with one bedroom, one full bath, and a striking double rock fireplace that anchors the living space with true cabin character. Recent improvements have addressed key functional items, while cosmetic updates have begun, leaving room for you to bring your own vision and finishes to life. The metal roof, log construction, and elevated setting offer that rustic Alaska feel buyers love. Outside, the property features a front deck, fenced area for animals, and usable land with hilly topography and maintained gravel access. This is not a polished home, it is an opportunity. Whether you are looking for a recreational cabin, rental potential, or an affordable path into homeownership, this is a project with momentum already started. Reach out today for a private showing. The seller cannot finance, and the heat if off. This property is sold as-is. Bring your tools, your ideas, and your ambition.

2. 2026-02-27
   listed $124,900 Active 1338-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1338 chars)

   Perched on nearly a full acre in Wasilla, this classic 1965 Alaskan log cabin has already had several important repairs completed and is ready for its next chapter. Major systems are in place, including natural gas, electric, private well, and septic, giving you a solid foundation from which to work. Inside, you'll find 896 square feet with one bedroom, a 3/4 bath, and a striking double rock fire- Inside, you'll find 896 square feet with one bedroom, one full bath, and a striking double rock fireplace that anchors the living space with true cabin character. Recent improvements have addressed key functional items, while cosmetic updates have begun, leaving room for you to bring your own vision and finishes to life. The metal roof, log construction, and elevated setting offer that rustic Alaska feel buyers love. Outside, the property features a front deck, fenced area for animals, and usable land with hilly topography and maintained gravel access. This is not a polished home, it is an opportunity. Whether you are looking for a recreational cabin, rental potential, or an affordable path into homeownership, this is a project with momentum already started. Reach out today for a private showing. The seller cannot finance, and the heat if off. This property is sold as-is. Bring your tools, your ideas, and your ambition.

3. 2024-06-28
   soldstatus Closed 407-char remark

   Show marketing remark (407 chars)

   Beautiful rustic Alaskan log cabin on a hill! Featuring two rock fireplaces & nice deck perched on top of the neighborhood cheap starter house with just a little sweat equity. Recent upgrades include new gas griddle top stove, well pump, natural gas pushed up to property, Electric, & septic. Fenced area for dog, goats, or Chickens. Perfect opportunity to own piece of land on the Redington trail!

4. 2024-06-28
   soldstatus

   Show marketing remark (407 chars)

   Beautiful rustic Alaskan log cabin on a hill! Featuring two rock fireplaces & nice deck perched on top of the neighborhood cheap starter house with just a little sweat equity. Recent upgrades include new gas griddle top stove, well pump, natural gas pushed up to property, Electric, & septic. Fenced area for dog, goats, or Chickens. Perfect opportunity to own piece of land on the Redington trail!

5. 2024-05-31
   status Pending 407-char remark

   Show marketing remark (407 chars)

   Beautiful rustic Alaskan log cabin on a hill! Featuring two rock fireplaces & nice deck perched on top of the neighborhood cheap starter house with just a little sweat equity. Recent upgrades include new gas griddle top stove, well pump, natural gas pushed up to property, Electric, & septic. Fenced area for dog, goats, or Chickens. Perfect opportunity to own piece of land on the Redington trail!

6. 2024-04-25
   listed $99,999 Active 407-char remark

   Show marketing remark (407 chars)

   Beautiful rustic Alaskan log cabin on a hill! Featuring two rock fireplaces & nice deck perched on top of the neighborhood cheap starter house with just a little sweat equity. Recent upgrades include new gas griddle top stove, well pump, natural gas pushed up to property, Electric, & septic. Fenced area for dog, goats, or Chickens. Perfect opportunity to own piece of land on the Redington trail!

7. 2024-04-05
   listed $105,000 Active
8. 2024-03-19
   price $119,900
9. 2024-02-17
   listed $125,000 Active
10. 2023-11-05
    price $100,000
11. 2023-08-25
    listed $125,000 Active
12. 2023-06-25
    listed $120,000 Active
13. 2022-10-04
    soldstatus
14. 2022-08-01
    soldstatus
15. 2022-08-01
    soldstatus
16. 2022-06-25
    status Pending
17. 2022-06-17
    listed $77,500 Active
18. 2020-07-08
    soldstatus
19. 2020-06-03
    historical
20. 2020-05-22
    listed $15,000
21. 2016-06-10
    soldstatus
22. 2016-03-21
    listed $29,000
23. 2016-02-12
    soldstatus
24. 2016-01-22
    listed $15,000
25. 2005-05-03
    soldstatus
26. 2004-10-19
    listed $80,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $461 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $825 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: +$364/yr (+$30/mo · 79.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,123
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$461
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,450
• − Management: −$1,450
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $5,761
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,383
• After-tax cash flow: $5,688/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,325
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3484
• State rank: #5 of 21 in AK

Livability — Knik-Fairview

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Knik-Fairview, AK
• County: Matanuska Susitna Borough · 100,174 people
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• Population (ZIP): 23,424
• Household income: $88,799
• Rent vs Own: 18.0% rent · 82.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 285.0

Population outlook (Matanuska-Susitna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 126,730 people
• By 2030: 139,641 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 165,122 · +30.3%
• By 2050: 189,697 · +49.7%
• By 2075: 249,959 · +97.2%
• By 2100: 288,077 · +127.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 10% Native American 8% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Matanuska-Susitna

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.82%
• Current HPI: 200.2242
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.17%
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+24.9% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $99,900 AKMLS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $124,900 AKMLS
• 2024-06-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-06-28 Sold (MLS) — AKMLS
• 2024-05-31 Pending — AKMLS
• 2024-04-25 Listed $99,999 AKMLS
• 2024-04-05 Listed $105,000 AKMLS
• 2024-03-19 Price Changed $119,900 AKMLS
• 2024-02-17 Listed $125,000 AKMLS
• 2023-11-05 Price Changed $100,000 AKMLS
• 2023-08-25 Listed $125,000 AKMLS
• 2023-06-25 Listed $120,000 AKMLS
• 2022-10-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-08-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-08-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-06-25 Pending — AKMLS
• 2022-06-17 Listed $77,500 AKMLS
• 2020-07-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-06-03 Delisted — AKMLS
• 2020-05-22 Listed $15,000 AKMLS
• 2016-06-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-03-21 Listed $29,000 AKMLS
• 2016-02-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-01-22 Listed $15,000 AKMLS
• 2005-05-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-10-19 Listed $80,000 AKMLS

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $461 · +10.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.