1511 Monterry Pl

Newport News, VA 23608

$133,000D

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,100 sqft · Built 1979 · Condo · Active · 111 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,638/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$697
• Tax + insurance: −$196
• HOA: −$476
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $-75/mo
• Annual: $-902/yr
• Cap rate: 5.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.42%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 1.23%
• Cash to close: $37,240

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $133k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-75 ($-902/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $120k (10.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $133k).
• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $120k (10.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $920 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#123 in VA, #4,018 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, housing A; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Newport News City Public School District (urban): math 34% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #112 of 131 in VA (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Richneck Elementary (math 35% / reading 53%, grade F, #851 of 1,108 statewide, top 77%, 558 students, 90% FRL); Ella J. Fitzgerald Middle (math 41% / reading 57%, grade C-, #238 of 342 statewide, top 71%, 1,060 students, 87% FRL); Woodside High (math 54% / reading 86%, grade B+, #151 of 319 statewide, top 49%, 1,807 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 55% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.9%/yr); 213 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 522 units permitted in Newport News city in 2024 (458 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Newport News County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $133k implies a 66% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.2% in Newport News — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?