1511 Monterry Pl · Newport News, VA 23608

$133,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,100 sqft · Condo public records · 111 Days on market

Built 1979 $121/sqft · at area comps Est $135k · at est. $476/mo HOA · 29% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• ARV discount +8.2/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Freshly painted, newer LVP floors downstairs, newer carpet upstairs. This 1100 SF condo has lots of storage. Primary BR with deep walk-in closet. Large utility room off kitchen, extra closet under stairs. Ready to move in. Association fees include water, sewer & trash.

Key facts

• Newer lvp floors
• Deep walk-in closet
• Large utility room

Tags

• NEWER LVP FLOORS
• DEEP WALK-IN CLOSET
• LARGE UTILITY ROOM
• EXTRA CLOSET UNDER STAIRS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $133k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-77 ($-926/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $119k (10.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $133k).
• Recommended offer: $119k (10.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.2% in Newport News — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#123 in VA, #4,018 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, housing A; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Newport News City Public School District (urban): math 34% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #112 of 131 in VA (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Richneck Elementary (math 35% / reading 53%, grade F, #851 of 1,108 statewide, top 77%, 558 students, 90% FRL); Ella J. Fitzgerald Middle (math 41% / reading 57%, grade C-, #238 of 342 statewide, top 71%, 1,060 students, 87% FRL); Woodside High (math 54% / reading 86%, grade B+, #151 of 319 statewide, top 49%, 1,807 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 55% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.9%/yr); 213 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 522 units permitted in Newport News city in 2024 (458 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $920 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Newport News County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $133k implies a 66% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,372 (10.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.49%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $135,118
• List price: $133,000
• Delta: -1.57%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.87% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-19,549
• Equity at exit: $19,831

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $7,272
• Equity at exit: $11,499

Cash invested: $37,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23608

• Home prices YoY: -10.5%
• Rents YoY: 6.9%
• Active inventory: 213
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,635 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$697
• Tax from tax record: −$140 /mo · $1,681/yr
• Insurance: −$55
• HOA: −$476
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $-77

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,733

Max offer price $119,372

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2	-5% $-39	+0% $-77	+5% $-115	+10% $-152
Rent	-10% $-206	-5% $-142	+0% $-77	+5% $-13	+10% $52
Rate	-1.0pp $-10	-0.5pp $-43	base $-77	+0.5pp $-112	+1.0pp $-147

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,250
• Closing costs: $3,990
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
104 Landmark Ct Newport News, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1020	$1,504	$1.47	4d	1	0.21mi
163 Windsor Castle Dr Unit B Newport News, VA	2.0	2.5	1369	$1,750	$1.28	23d	1	0.25mi
1 Cedarwood Way Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,711	$1.63	45d	1	0.25mi
153 Windsor Castle Dr Unit A Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	985	$1,450	$1.47	12d	1	0.27mi
650 Stoney Creek Ln Unit 00 510305 Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	1124	$1,699	$1.51	5d	1	0.30mi
650 Stoney Creek Ln Unit 00 610301 Newport News, VA	1.0	1.0	748	$1,379	$1.84	45d	1	0.30mi
650 Stoney Creek Ln Unit 00 601303 Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	1124	$1,649	$1.47	25d	1	0.30mi
650 Stoney Creek Ln Unit 00 520307 Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	1124	$1,614	$1.44	45d	1	0.30mi
650 Stoney Creek Ln Unit 00 621307 Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	1124	$1,499	$1.33	45d	1	0.30mi
218 Mona Dr Newport News, VA	3.0	1.0	993	$2,150	$2.17	25d	1	0.38mi
12750 Saint George St Newport News, VA	3.0	2.5	1350	$1,300	$0.96	9d	1	0.38mi
804 Newday Ct Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	16d	1	0.48mi
12851 Daybreak Cir Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	942	$1,450	$1.54	45d	1	0.52mi
12663 Daybreak Cir Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	944	$1,500	$1.59	45d	1	0.53mi
108 Tazewell Rd Newport News, VA	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,900	$1.66	45d	1	0.56mi
305 Mona Dr Newport News, VA	3.0	1.0	1016	$1,650	$1.62	12d	1	0.58mi
13 Sally Ann Pl Newport News, VA	3.0	1.5	1150	$2,150	$1.87	5d	1	0.85mi
11 Betty Lee Pl Newport News, VA	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,495	$1.50	25d	1	0.87mi
55 Oneonta Dr Newport News, VA	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,750	$1.52	25d	1	0.92mi
15 Otsego Dr Newport News, VA	3.0	1.5	1280	$1,900	$1.48	45d	1	0.95mi
100 Springhouse Way Newport News, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	675	$1,589	$2.35	3d	47	0.96mi
581 Calla Ct Newport News, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	990	$1,360	$1.37	3d	11	1.03mi
397 Deputy Ln Unit A Newport News, VA	3.0	2.5	1422	$1,925	$1.35	23d	1	1.07mi
2055 Stanford Ln Unit 00 2055332 Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	942	$2,120	$2.25	25d	1	1.11mi
401 Jester Ct Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	949	$1,462	$1.54	3d	3	1.15mi
416 Hustings Ln Unit F Newport News, VA	3.0	2.5	1422	$1,850	$1.30	16d	1	1.17mi
416 Hustings Ln Newport News, VA	3.0	3.0	1422	$1,850	$1.30	14d	1	1.17mi
381 Advocate Ct Unit F Newport News, VA	3.0	2.5	1400	$1,325	$0.95	45d	1	1.22mi
722 Emerald Ct Newport News, VA	3.0	2.5	1488	$2,400	$1.61	45d	1	1.22mi
713 Emerald Ct Newport News, VA	3.0	2.5	1455	$2,300	$1.58	45d	1	1.26mi
14353 Deloice Cres Newport News, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	971	$1,790	$1.84	3d	11	1.34mi
161 Jenness Ln Newport News, VA	3.0	1.5	1121	$1,537	$1.37	45d	1	1.36mi
900 Radius Way Newport News, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	841	$2,143	$2.55	3d	22	1.46mi
500 Big Forrest Ct Newport News, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0	828	$1,383	$1.67	5d	4	1.46mi
517 Mary Robert Ln Unit 1 Newport News, VA	1.0	1.0	750	$1,400	$1.87	45d	1	1.48mi
14534 Old Courthouse Way Newport News, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0	732	$1,250	$1.71	4d	14	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $476 · $5,712/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrash
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $133,000 Active 111 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $133,000 Active 108 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $133,000 Active 107 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $133,000 Active 106 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $133,000 Active 105 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $133,000 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $133,000 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $133,000 Active 97 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $133,000 Active 93 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $133,000 Active 92 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $133,000 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $133,000 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-04-30
    price $133,000 273-char remark

    Show marketing remark (275 chars)

    Freshly painted, newer LVP floors downstairs, newer carpet upstairs. This 1100 SF condo has lots of storage. Primary BR with deep walk-in closet. Large utility room off kitchen, extra closet under stairs. Ready to move in. Association fees include water, sewer & trash.

14. 2026-04-30
    price $133,000 275-char remark

    Show marketing remark (275 chars)

    Freshly painted, newer LVP floors downstairs, newer carpet upstairs. This 1100 SF condo has lots of storage. Primary BR with deep walk-in closet. Large utility room off kitchen, extra closet under stairs. Ready to move in. Association fees include water, sewer & trash.

15. 2026-03-02
    listed $140,000 Active 273-char remark

    Show marketing remark (275 chars)

    Freshly painted, newer LVP floors downstairs, newer carpet upstairs. This 1100 SF condo has lots of storage. Primary BR with deep walk-in closet. Large utility room off kitchen, extra closet under stairs. Ready to move in. Association fees include water, sewer & trash.

16. 2026-03-02
    listed $140,000 Active 275-char remark

    Show marketing remark (275 chars)

    Freshly painted, newer LVP floors downstairs, newer carpet upstairs. This 1100 SF condo has lots of storage. Primary BR with deep walk-in closet. Large utility room off kitchen, extra closet under stairs. Ready to move in. Association fees include water, sewer & trash.

17. 2007-06-28
    soldstatus $80,000
18. 1998-09-09
    soldstatus $30,000
19. 1979-08-01
    soldstatus $34,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,681 · $140/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,681 · $140/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,623
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,450
• − Property taxes: −$1,681
• − Insurance: −$665
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,570
• − Management: −$1,570
• − HOA: −$5,712
• − Depreciation: −$3,869
• Taxable loss: −$2,894
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$695
• After-tax cash flow: $-231/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newport News City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102640
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -37.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $49,644
• Composite: 37.7/100
• National rank: #4360
• State rank: #112 of 131 in VA

Livability — Newport News

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #123
• US rank: #4018

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment C Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newport News, VA
• County: Newport News City · 178,950 people
• City population: 178,950
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 43,641
• Household income: $71,126
• Rent vs Own: 50.4% rent · 49.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 2094.0

Population outlook (Newport News County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 181,076 people
• By 2030: 179,683 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 174,649 · -3.5%
• By 2050: 167,407 · -7.5%
• By 2075: 147,597 · -18.5%
• By 2100: 122,144 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 40% White 36% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 11% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Newport News

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.8) · D 63.7% · R 34.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.1pp no change · 2008: 28.7pp · 2024: 28.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.8 2020: D+32.9 2016: D+25.4 2012: D+30.0 2008: D+28.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.79%
• Current HPI: 297.7465
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.87%
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+288.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $133,000 REINMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $133,000 WMLS
• 2026-03-02 Listed $140,000 WMLS
• 2026-03-02 Listed $140,000 REINMLS
• 2007-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 1998-09-09 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 1979-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $34,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,681 · +17.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.