4646 SE Circle Way

Port Salerno, FL 34997

$230,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Built 2005 · Manufactured · Active · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,588/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax + insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$75
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $-185/mo
• Annual: $-2,215/yr
• Cap rate: 5.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.44%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $64,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $230k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-185 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $197k (14.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (31.0% below list).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $159k (31.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#440 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Martin (suburban): math 52% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #24 of 73 in FL (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sea Wind Elementary School (math 43% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,288 of 2,144 statewide, top 62%, 501 students, 72% FRL); Murray Middle School (math 45% / reading 43%, grade D, #327 of 571 statewide, top 57%, 616 students, 69% FRL); South Fork High School (math 36% / reading 48%, grade F, #275 of 667 statewide, top 42%, 1,810 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 41% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 601 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 737 units permitted in Martin County in 2024 (167 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Martin County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $230k implies a 667% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.1% in Port Salerno — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.