3 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,050 sqft ·
Built 1996
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 130 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,129/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$378
Tax + insurance
−$152
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$237
Net cashflow
$362/mo
Annual
$4,347/yr
Cap rate
12.33%
Cash-on-cash
21.56%
DSCR
1.96
1% rule
1.57%
Cash to close
$20,160
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $72k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $362 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $72k).
It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $63k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $3k of equity ($498 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (4.1% local appreciation)).
Location reads 67/100 on livability (#78 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools F, crime F.
Birmingham City (urban): math 4% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #116 of 129 in AL (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 51d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 88% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $48k; list at $72k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (4.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 6.1% in Birmingham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Major: siding
— Significant wear and tear
Major: paint
— Peeling and chipping
Major: landscaping
— Overgrown and unkempt
CashFlowRE · CFR-MFYXF0741JMN3M
· Data 15 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29