851 Shoreline Cir

Sawgrass, FL 32082

$209,900D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 734 sqft · Built 1985 · Condo · Active · 111 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,853/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax + insurance: −$260
• HOA: −$389
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $-286/mo
• Annual: $-3,430/yr
• Cap rate: 4.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.84%
• DSCR: 0.74
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $58,772

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $210k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-286 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $159k (24.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (11.7% below list).
• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($191k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $159k (24.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#675 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Ponte Vedra Palm Valley- Rawlings Elementary School (math 86% / reading 84%, grade A+, #35 of 2,144 statewide, top 2%, 1,066 students, 11% FRL); Alice B. Landrum Middle School (math 87% / reading 79%, grade A+, #14 of 571 statewide, top 2%, 1,142 students, 3% FRL); Ponte Vedra High School (math 82% / reading 82%, grade A, #19 of 667 statewide, top 3%, 1,928 students, 2% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.4%/yr); 342 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 2.1% in Sawgrass — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($125k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?