851 Shoreline Cir · Sawgrass, FL 32082

$209,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 734 sqft · Condo public records · 111 Days on market

Built 1985 $286/sqft · 34% below area Est $317k · 34% under · waterfront $389/mo HOA · 21% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Oh Lucky Day...this stunning condo is back on the market in desirable Summer House community, east of A1A in Ponte Vedra Beach. A must see!! This lakefront 1-bedroom, 1-bath is located on the second floor & features a private balcony with tranquil water and fountain views. The interior offers tile flooring in the main living areas, carpet in the bedroom, crown molding, and a fireplace for added charm. The kitchen is equipped with stainless steel appliances, wood cabinetry & granite countertops. Spacious primary bedroom with natural sunlight includes walk-in closet with sitting area & even room for a desk area. Adorable pantry closet off the foyer. HVAC 2021 & Smart Water Heater 2022. Residents enjoy access to two pools, tennis courts, clubhouse & fitness center. Just minutes from the beach, shopping, dining, and world-class golf - Sawgrass and PGA Tour, this is a fantastic opportunity to own in Ponte Vedra Beach.

Key facts

• Lakefront
• Fountain views
• Private balcony

Tags

• LAKEFRONT
• PRIVATE BALCONY
• TRANQUIL WATER VIEWS
• FOUNTAIN VIEWS
• TILE FLOORING
• IN-UNIT LAUNDRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-286 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $159k (24.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (11.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $159k (24.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 2.1% in Sawgrass — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#675 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Ponte Vedra Palm Valley- Rawlings Elementary School (math 86% / reading 84%, grade A+, #35 of 2,144 statewide, top 2%, 1,066 students, 11% FRL); Alice B. Landrum Middle School (math 87% / reading 79%, grade A+, #14 of 571 statewide, top 2%, 1,142 students, 3% FRL); Ponte Vedra High School (math 82% / reading 82%, grade A, #19 of 667 statewide, top 3%, 1,928 students, 2% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.4%/yr); 342 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($125k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($191k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,407 (24.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.84%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $317,196
• List price: $209,900
• Delta: -33.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-43,459
• Equity at exit: $31,297

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-22,021
• Equity at exit: $18,148

Cash invested: $58,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32082

• Rents YoY: 7.4%
• Active inventory: 342
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,853 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$173 /mo · $2,071/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$389
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $-286

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,215

Max offer price $159,407

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-167	-5% $-226	+0% $-286	+5% $-345	+10% $-405
Rent	-10% $-432	-5% $-359	+0% $-286	+5% $-213	+10% $-139
Rate	-1.0pp $-180	-0.5pp $-232	base $-286	+0.5pp $-340	+1.0pp $-396

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,475
• Closing costs: $6,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 Fairway Park Blvd Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	577	$1,475	$2.55	25d	3	0.24mi
100 Fairway Park Blvd Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	750	$1,495	$1.99	16d	3	0.24mi
743 Spinnakers Reach Dr Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$4,500	$6.43	25d	1	1.29mi
667 Summer Pl Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	—	1.0	540	$2,000	$3.70	25d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $389 · $4,668/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,900 Active 111 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,900 Active 110 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,900 Active 109 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,900 Active 107 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,900 Active 106 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $209,900 Active 103 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,900 Active 102 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $209,900 Active 101 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $223,500 Active 97 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $223,500 Active 96 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $223,500 Active 95 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $223,500 Active 94 DOM
14. 2026-05-15
    price $223,500 946-char remark

    Show marketing remark (946 chars)

    Oh Lucky Day...this stunning condo is back on the market in desirable Summer House community, east of A1A in Ponte Vedra Beach. A must see!! This lakefront 1-bedroom, 1-bath is located on the second floor & features a private balcony with tranquil water and fountain views. The interior offers tile flooring in the main living areas, carpet in the bedroom, crown molding, and a fireplace for added charm. The kitchen is equipped with stainless steel appliances, wood cabinetry & granite countertops. Spacious primary bedroom with natural sunlight includes walk-in closet with sitting area & even room for a desk area. Adorable pantry closet off the foyer. HVAC 2021 & Smart Water Heater 2022. Residents enjoy access to two pools, tennis courts, clubhouse & fitness center. Just minutes from the beach, shopping, dining, and world-class golf - Sawgrass and PGA Tour, this is a fantastic opportunity to own in Ponte Vedra Beach.

15. 2026-04-28
    status Active 946-char remark

    Show marketing remark (946 chars)

    Oh Lucky Day...this stunning condo is back on the market in desirable Summer House community, east of A1A in Ponte Vedra Beach. A must see!! This lakefront 1-bedroom, 1-bath is located on the second floor & features a private balcony with tranquil water and fountain views. The interior offers tile flooring in the main living areas, carpet in the bedroom, crown molding, and a fireplace for added charm. The kitchen is equipped with stainless steel appliances, wood cabinetry & granite countertops. Spacious primary bedroom with natural sunlight includes walk-in closet with sitting area & even room for a desk area. Adorable pantry closet off the foyer. HVAC 2021 & Smart Water Heater 2022. Residents enjoy access to two pools, tennis courts, clubhouse & fitness center. Just minutes from the beach, shopping, dining, and world-class golf - Sawgrass and PGA Tour, this is a fantastic opportunity to own in Ponte Vedra Beach.

16. 2026-04-13
    historical Active Under Contract 946-char remark

    Show marketing remark (946 chars)

    Oh Lucky Day...this stunning condo is back on the market in desirable Summer House community, east of A1A in Ponte Vedra Beach. A must see!! This lakefront 1-bedroom, 1-bath is located on the second floor & features a private balcony with tranquil water and fountain views. The interior offers tile flooring in the main living areas, carpet in the bedroom, crown molding, and a fireplace for added charm. The kitchen is equipped with stainless steel appliances, wood cabinetry & granite countertops. Spacious primary bedroom with natural sunlight includes walk-in closet with sitting area & even room for a desk area. Adorable pantry closet off the foyer. HVAC 2021 & Smart Water Heater 2022. Residents enjoy access to two pools, tennis courts, clubhouse & fitness center. Just minutes from the beach, shopping, dining, and world-class golf - Sawgrass and PGA Tour, this is a fantastic opportunity to own in Ponte Vedra Beach.

17. 2026-04-03
    price $225,000 946-char remark

    Show marketing remark (946 chars)

    Oh Lucky Day...this stunning condo is back on the market in desirable Summer House community, east of A1A in Ponte Vedra Beach. A must see!! This lakefront 1-bedroom, 1-bath is located on the second floor & features a private balcony with tranquil water and fountain views. The interior offers tile flooring in the main living areas, carpet in the bedroom, crown molding, and a fireplace for added charm. The kitchen is equipped with stainless steel appliances, wood cabinetry & granite countertops. Spacious primary bedroom with natural sunlight includes walk-in closet with sitting area & even room for a desk area. Adorable pantry closet off the foyer. HVAC 2021 & Smart Water Heater 2022. Residents enjoy access to two pools, tennis courts, clubhouse & fitness center. Just minutes from the beach, shopping, dining, and world-class golf - Sawgrass and PGA Tour, this is a fantastic opportunity to own in Ponte Vedra Beach.

18. 2026-02-26
    listed $240,000 Active 946-char remark

    Show marketing remark (946 chars)

    Oh Lucky Day...this stunning condo is back on the market in desirable Summer House community, east of A1A in Ponte Vedra Beach. A must see!! This lakefront 1-bedroom, 1-bath is located on the second floor & features a private balcony with tranquil water and fountain views. The interior offers tile flooring in the main living areas, carpet in the bedroom, crown molding, and a fireplace for added charm. The kitchen is equipped with stainless steel appliances, wood cabinetry & granite countertops. Spacious primary bedroom with natural sunlight includes walk-in closet with sitting area & even room for a desk area. Adorable pantry closet off the foyer. HVAC 2021 & Smart Water Heater 2022. Residents enjoy access to two pools, tennis courts, clubhouse & fitness center. Just minutes from the beach, shopping, dining, and world-class golf - Sawgrass and PGA Tour, this is a fantastic opportunity to own in Ponte Vedra Beach.

19. 2022-09-16
    soldstatus $232,000
20. 2022-09-15
    soldstatus $232,000 Sold 887-char remark

    Show marketing remark (887 chars)

    Summer House condominium, Ponte Vedra Beach, East of A1A. Lakefront, 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom, 2nd unit with a balcony. Community residents can enjoy 2 pools, 3 tennis courts, a club house, and a fitness center! Relax in this fully-equipped, nicely appointed with tile floors throughout the area and cozy carpet in the bedroom. steel appliances, rich wood cabinets, and black countertops are sure to please the chef. The open and dining are adorned with crown molding, a fireplace, sunny windows, and a balcony overlooking the water and fountain. Enjoy a full bath with granite countertops and an under-mount sink atop an adult-size vanity and a tile surround in the tub/shower combo, next to a spacious bedroom with a walk-in closet and a convenient in-unit laundry closet. Located just minutes from shopping, dining, the beach, The Players' Championship golf course, and Sawgrass.

21. 2022-08-05
    status Pending 887-char remark

    Show marketing remark (887 chars)

    Summer House condominium, Ponte Vedra Beach, East of A1A. Lakefront, 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom, 2nd unit with a balcony. Community residents can enjoy 2 pools, 3 tennis courts, a club house, and a fitness center! Relax in this fully-equipped, nicely appointed with tile floors throughout the area and cozy carpet in the bedroom. steel appliances, rich wood cabinets, and black countertops are sure to please the chef. The open and dining are adorned with crown molding, a fireplace, sunny windows, and a balcony overlooking the water and fountain. Enjoy a full bath with granite countertops and an under-mount sink atop an adult-size vanity and a tile surround in the tub/shower combo, next to a spacious bedroom with a walk-in closet and a convenient in-unit laundry closet. Located just minutes from shopping, dining, the beach, The Players' Championship golf course, and Sawgrass.

22. 2022-07-26
    price $239,900 887-char remark

    Show marketing remark (887 chars)

    Summer House condominium, Ponte Vedra Beach, East of A1A. Lakefront, 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom, 2nd unit with a balcony. Community residents can enjoy 2 pools, 3 tennis courts, a club house, and a fitness center! Relax in this fully-equipped, nicely appointed with tile floors throughout the area and cozy carpet in the bedroom. steel appliances, rich wood cabinets, and black countertops are sure to please the chef. The open and dining are adorned with crown molding, a fireplace, sunny windows, and a balcony overlooking the water and fountain. Enjoy a full bath with granite countertops and an under-mount sink atop an adult-size vanity and a tile surround in the tub/shower combo, next to a spacious bedroom with a walk-in closet and a convenient in-unit laundry closet. Located just minutes from shopping, dining, the beach, The Players' Championship golf course, and Sawgrass.

23. 2022-07-06
    listed $249,900 Active 887-char remark

    Show marketing remark (887 chars)

    Summer House condominium, Ponte Vedra Beach, East of A1A. Lakefront, 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom, 2nd unit with a balcony. Community residents can enjoy 2 pools, 3 tennis courts, a club house, and a fitness center! Relax in this fully-equipped, nicely appointed with tile floors throughout the area and cozy carpet in the bedroom. steel appliances, rich wood cabinets, and black countertops are sure to please the chef. The open and dining are adorned with crown molding, a fireplace, sunny windows, and a balcony overlooking the water and fountain. Enjoy a full bath with granite countertops and an under-mount sink atop an adult-size vanity and a tile surround in the tub/shower combo, next to a spacious bedroom with a walk-in closet and a convenient in-unit laundry closet. Located just minutes from shopping, dining, the beach, The Players' Championship golf course, and Sawgrass.

24. 2022-06-24
    soldstatus $218,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,071 · $173/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,071 · $173/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,237
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,758
• − Property taxes: −$2,071
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,779
• − Management: −$1,779
• − HOA: −$4,668
• − Depreciation: −$6,106
• Taxable loss: −$6,973
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,674
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,756/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Johns
• NCES district ID: 1201740
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,842
• Composite: 64.31/100
• National rank: #556
• State rank: #2 of 73 in FL

Livability — Sawgrass

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #675
• US rank: #13959

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sawgrass, FL
• County: Saint Johns County · 301,599 people
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,289
• Household income: $124,558
• Rent vs Own: 16.8% rent · 83.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 672.0

Population outlook (St. Johns County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 303,941 people
• By 2030: 342,590 · +12.7%
• By 2040: 417,328 · +37.3%
• By 2050: 487,011 · +60.2%
• By 2075: 635,395 · +109.1%
• By 2100: 717,469 · +136.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Johns

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.9% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -435.26%
• Current HPI: 306.134
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.39%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $223,500 realMLS
• 2026-04-28 Relisted — realMLS
• 2026-04-13 Contingent — realMLS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $225,000 realMLS
• 2026-02-26 Listed $240,000 realMLS
• 2022-09-16 Sold (Public Records) $232,000 Public Records
• 2022-09-15 Sold (MLS) $232,000 realMLS
• 2022-08-05 Pending — realMLS
• 2022-07-26 Price Changed $239,900 realMLS
• 2022-07-06 Listed $249,900 realMLS
• 2022-06-24 Sold (Public Records) $218,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,071 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.