3222 Perry Blizzard Rd

Deep Run, NC 28525

$191,800D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,140 sqft · Built 1952 · SingleFamily · Pending · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,413/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,006
• Tax + insurance: −$159
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $-48/mo
• Annual: $-576/yr
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.07%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $53,704

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $192k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-48 ($-576/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $183k (4.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (26.3% below list).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($186k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $141k (26.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (6.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lenoir County Public Schools (rural): math 29% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #147 of 178 in NC (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pink Hill Elementary (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #806 of 1,410 statewide, top 57%, 459 students, 99% FRL); Woodington Middle (math 31% / reading 43%, grade F, #262 of 475 statewide, top 57%, 577 students, 100% FRL); South Lenoir High (math 52% / reading 42%, grade D-, #334 of 535 statewide, top 64%, 771 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 65% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 148 units permitted in Lenoir County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lenoir County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 420% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• At projected returns (6.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $54k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.