3222 Perry Blizzard Rd · Deep Run, NC 28525

$191,800

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,140 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1952 1.73 ac lot Est $180k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• Appreciation +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +4.6/15.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming Home with 3 bedrooms, 1.5 bath offers classic character additional space perfect for a home office and has a carport. Situated on 1.73 acres and includes a barn. Rare opportunity for this area.

Key facts

• 1.15 acres
• 0.58 acres
• Carport

Tags

• HOME OFFICE
• CARPORT
• 0.58 ACRES
• 1.15 ACRES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $192k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-48 ($-576/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $183k (4.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (26.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $141k (26.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lenoir County Public Schools (rural): math 29% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #147 of 178 in NC (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pink Hill Elementary (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #806 of 1,410 statewide, top 57%, 459 students, 99% FRL); Woodington Middle (math 31% / reading 43%, grade F, #262 of 475 statewide, top 57%, 577 students, 100% FRL); South Lenoir High (math 52% / reading 42%, grade D-, #334 of 535 statewide, top 64%, 771 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 65% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 148 units permitted in Lenoir County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (6.0% local appreciation)).
• Lenoir County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $54k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($186k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 420% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $141,348 (26.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.07%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $180,120
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3222 Perry Blizzard Rd	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,140 (0%)	1mo	$180,000	$158	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.02% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $52,510
• Equity at exit: $120,859

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.92×
• Total profit: $156,619
• Equity at exit: $219,418

Cash invested: $53,704 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28525

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,413 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,006
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $947/yr
• Insurance: −$80
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $-48

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,474

Max offer price $183,320

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $61	-5% $6	+0% $-48	+5% $-102	+10% $-157
Rent	-10% $-160	-5% $-104	+0% $-48	+5% $8	+10% $64
Rate	-1.0pp $49	-0.5pp $1	base $-48	+0.5pp $-98	+1.0pp $-148

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,950
• Closing costs: $5,754
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-13
   price $191,800
3. 2026-04-10
   status Active
4. 2026-03-26
   status Active
5. 2026-03-26
   historical
6. 2026-03-25
   status Active
7. 2026-03-25
   status Active
8. 2026-03-17
   status Pending
9. 2026-03-17
   status Pending
10. 2026-03-02
    historical Active Under Contract
11. 2026-03-02
    historical Active Under Contract
12. 2026-02-25
    listed $36,900 Active
13. 2026-02-22
    listed $154,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $947 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,573 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: +$626/yr (+$52/mo · 66.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,962
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,744
• − Property taxes: −$947
• − Insurance: −$959
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,357
• − Management: −$1,357
• − Depreciation: −$5,580
• Taxable loss: −$3,982
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$956
• After-tax cash flow: $380/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lenoir County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702610
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $34,958
• Composite: 25.17/100
• National rank: #7515
• State rank: #147 of 178 in NC

Livability — Deep Run

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,684

Population outlook (Lenoir County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,002 people
• By 2030: 53,048 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 49,041 · -10.8%
• By 2050: 45,136 · -17.9%
• By 2075: 36,547 · -33.6%
• By 2100: 27,731 · -49.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 10% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 25%

Political lean MEDSL · Lenoir

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.8) · D 46.2% · R 53.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -6.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.8 2020: R+3.5 2016: R+6.3 2012: R+1.5 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.02%
• Current HPI: 214.2322
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+23.8% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $191,800 Hive MLS
• 2026-04-10 Relisted — Hive MLS
• 2026-03-26 Relisted — Hive MLS
• 2026-03-26 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2026-03-25 Relisted — Hive MLS
• 2026-03-25 Relisted — Hive MLS
• 2026-03-17 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2026-03-17 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2026-03-02 Contingent — Hive MLS
• 2026-03-02 Contingent — Hive MLS
• 2026-02-25 Listed $36,900 Hive MLS
• 2026-02-22 Listed $154,900 Hive MLS