403 N 19th St

Paducah, KY 42001

$219,900C+

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,500 sqft · Built — · MultiFamily · Active · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,748/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax + insurance: −$366
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$577
• Net cashflow: $651/mo
• Annual: $7,815/yr
• Cap rate: 9.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.69%
• DSCR: 1.56
• 1% rule: 1.25%
• Cash to close: $61,572

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $220k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $651 ($8k/yr) — positive. Per door: $326/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $220k).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $217k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#197 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Paducah Independent (town): math 22% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #122 of 165 in KY (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mcnabb Elementary School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #630 of 676 statewide, top 95%, 322 students, 91% FRL); Paducah Middle School (math 19% / reading 36%, grade F, #168 of 217 statewide, top 78%, 652 students, 69% FRL); Paducah Tilghman High School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #97 of 254 statewide, top 46%, 878 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: 252 active listings in the ZIP; 187 units permitted in McCracken County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• McCracken County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $178k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 4.5% in Paducah — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,748/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) (locally 1001% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: exterior lighting — The exterior lighting fixture is in need of cleaning or replacement.
• Minor: interior paint — The interior walls and paint show some wear and could benefit from a fresh coat.
• Minor: flooring — The carpeted flooring in the visible areas shows some wear and could benefit from cleaning or replacement.
• Minor: bathroom fixtures — The bathroom fixtures appear to be in fair condition but could benefit from cleaning or minor repairs.
• Minor: kitchen appliances — The kitchen appliances appear to be in fair condition but could benefit from cleaning or minor repairs.
• Minor: landscaping — The landscaping and curb appeal show signs of overgrowth and could benefit from trimming and maintenance.