5 bd · 3.5 ba ·
1,600 sqft ·
Built 2026
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 23 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,655/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,080
Tax + insurance
−$343
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$347
Net cashflow
$-117/mo
Annual
$-1,401/yr
Cap rate
5.61%
Cash-on-cash
-2.43%
DSCR
0.89
1% rule
0.80%
Cash to close
$57,689
Investor read
This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $180k. Condition is rated excellent.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-117 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (8.1% below list).
It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $165k (8.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 66/100 on livability (#634 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
Lufkin ISD (town): math 39% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #446 of 826 in TX (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Brandon El (math 48% / reading 50%, grade D, #926 of 4,322 statewide, top 22%, 394 students, 71% FRL); Lufkin Middle (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #717 of 1,662 statewide, top 44%, 1,487 students, 89% FRL); Lufkin H S (math 49% / reading 45%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 2,135 students, 85% FRL).
Market conditions: 297 active listings in the ZIP; 120 units permitted in Angelina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-MGS6Z48CF2W8XC
· Data 23 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29