4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,707 sqft ·
Built 1953
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 16 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,856/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,259
Tax + insurance
−$288
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$390
Net cashflow
$-80/mo
Annual
$-964/yr
Cap rate
5.89%
Cash-on-cash
-1.44%
DSCR
0.94
1% rule
0.77%
Cash to close
$67,200
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-80 ($-964/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (5.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (22.7% below list).
It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($236k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $186k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 79/100 on livability (#6 in MS, #2,141 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities F, employment D-.
Biloxi Public School District (urban): math 60% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #7 of 130 in MS (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Back Bay Elementary School (math 51% / reading 50%, grade D+, #59 of 375 statewide, top 16%, 535 students, 99% FRL); Biloxi Junior High (math 60% / reading 43%, grade C, #27 of 179 statewide, top 16%, 881 students, 100% FRL); Biloxi High School (math 65% / reading 53%, grade C+, #7 of 197 statewide, top 3%, 1,728 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 59% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 201 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,194 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Harrison County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $127k; list at $240k implies a 89% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.5% in Biloxi — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-MGZS4Q3R544N8J
· Data 19 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29