832 Keeling Rd

Badger, AK 99705

$200,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Built 1974 · Manufactured · Active · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,580/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$281
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$542
• Net cashflow: $708/mo
• Annual: $8,493/yr
• Cap rate: 10.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.17%
• DSCR: 1.67
• 1% rule: 1.29%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $708 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $197k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#49 in AK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, schools D, crime F.
• Fairbanks North Star Borough School District (urban): math 33% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #10 of 21 in AK (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 248 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1 units permitted in Fairbanks North Star Borough in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fairbanks North Star County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 29y ago; this cycle's ask is 14% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.1% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 4.9% in Badger — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.