832 Keeling Rd · Badger, AK 99705

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Manufactured public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1974 1.56 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.4/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for a large shop AND a home? Situated on a private 1.5 acre lot near the Cul de Sac, this 1536 s. f. shop/garage includes a 3 bed/2 bath mobile home giving you 1,000 s. f. of living space. The garage/shop was built in 2008, and all major mechanical has been replaced in the last 5 years. Lots of space to spread out, and store your toys or build another home. Generator will be included with a full price offer. Property being sold As-Is, Cash, or Owner finance with $60K down.

Key facts

• New metal roof
• Heated shop
• New flooring

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• HEATED SHOP
• NEW METAL ROOF
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW PAINT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $708 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $197k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 4.9% in Badger — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#49 in AK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, schools D, crime F.
• Fairbanks North Star Borough School District (urban): math 33% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #10 of 21 in AK (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 248 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1 units permitted in Fairbanks North Star Borough in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fairbanks North Star County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.1% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 29y ago; this cycle's ask is 14% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $197,000 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.17%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $18,186
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $97,504
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99705

• Home prices YoY: -21.2%
• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 248
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,580 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$198 /mo · $2,376/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$542
• Net cashflow: $708

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,684

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-05
   days on market $200,000 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $200,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $200,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $200,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $200,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $200,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-05-12
   price $200,000 516-char remark
8. 2026-05-09
   listed $250,000 Active 516-char remark
9. 2023-08-04
   soldstatus Closed 485-char remark

   Show marketing remark (485 chars)

   Looking for a large shop AND a home? Situated on a private 1.5 acre lot near the Cul de Sac, this 1536 s. f. shop/garage includes a 3 bed/2 bath mobile home giving you 1,000 s. f. of living space. The garage/shop was built in 2008, and all major mechanical has been replaced in the last 5 years. Lots of space to spread out, and store your toys or build another home. Generator will be included with a full price offer. Property being sold As-Is, Cash, or Owner finance with $60K down.

10. 2023-08-04
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (485 chars)

    Looking for a large shop AND a home? Situated on a private 1.5 acre lot near the Cul de Sac, this 1536 s. f. shop/garage includes a 3 bed/2 bath mobile home giving you 1,000 s. f. of living space. The garage/shop was built in 2008, and all major mechanical has been replaced in the last 5 years. Lots of space to spread out, and store your toys or build another home. Generator will be included with a full price offer. Property being sold As-Is, Cash, or Owner finance with $60K down.

11. 2023-05-18
    listed $175,000 Active 485-char remark

    Show marketing remark (485 chars)

    Looking for a large shop AND a home? Situated on a private 1.5 acre lot near the Cul de Sac, this 1536 s. f. shop/garage includes a 3 bed/2 bath mobile home giving you 1,000 s. f. of living space. The garage/shop was built in 2008, and all major mechanical has been replaced in the last 5 years. Lots of space to spread out, and store your toys or build another home. Generator will be included with a full price offer. Property being sold As-Is, Cash, or Owner finance with $60K down.

12. 2006-07-14
    soldstatus
13. 1997-06-10
    listed $89,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,376 · $198/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,378 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: +$2/yr ($0/mo · 0.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,956
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$2,376
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,476
• − Management: −$2,476
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $5,605
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,345
• After-tax cash flow: $7,148/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairbanks North Star Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200600
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,697
• Composite: 35.5/100
• National rank: #4915
• State rank: #10 of 21 in AK

Livability — Badger

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #15681

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Badger, AK
• County: Fairbanks North Star Borough · 69,381 people
• City population: 22,281
• Metro: Fairbanks, AK
• Population (ZIP): 21,769
• Household income: $96,964
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 237.0

Population outlook (Fairbanks North Star County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,607 people
• By 2030: 102,796 · +1.2%
• By 2040: 104,748 · +3.1%
• By 2050: 107,598 · +5.9%
• By 2075: 118,829 · +16.9%
• By 2100: 127,151 · +25.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 7% Native American 4% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Portuguese 3% Scottish 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fairbanks North Star

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.32%
• Current HPI: 157.102
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.08%
• Metro: Fairbanks, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+122.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $200,000 GFBR
• 2023-08-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-08-04 Sold (MLS) — GFBR
• 2023-05-18 Listed $175,000 GFBR
• 2006-07-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-06-10 Listed $89,900 AKMLS

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,376 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.