2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,296 sqft ·
Built 1990
· Manufactured
· Active
· 66 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,929/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,543
Tax + insurance
−$808
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$615
Net cashflow
$-1,038/mo
Annual
$-12,456/yr
Cap rate
3.72%
Cash-on-cash
-9.17%
DSCR
0.59
1% rule
0.60%
Cash to close
$135,800
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $485k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $335k (31.0% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $293k (39.6% below list).
It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($456k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $293k (39.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Ventura Unified (urban): math 33% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #218 of 517 in CA (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Pierpont Elementary (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #354 of 1,571 statewide, top 24%, 289 students, 35% FRL); Cabrillo Middle (math 37% / reading 55%, grade D+, #122 of 498 statewide, top 25%, 801 students, 40% FRL); Ventura High (math 27% / reading 62%, grade F, #434 of 1,170 statewide, top 39%, 2,095 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools at 44% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 119 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 46% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,759 units permitted in Ventura County in 2024 (1,196 in 5+ unit buildings).
Ventura County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
4 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 2.5% in San Buenaventura (Ventura) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-MHSRB0FSCDFQZB
· Data 2 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29