153 Ponquogue Ave

Hampton Bays, NY 11946

$1,500,000D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,910 sqft · Built 1994 · Other · Active · 242 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $10,417/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,866
• Tax + insurance: −$1,532
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,188
• Net cashflow: $-1,169/mo
• Annual: $-14,023/yr
• Cap rate: 5.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.34%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $420,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $1.50M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.29M (13.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.04M (30.6% below list).
• It's been on market 242 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.32M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.04M (30.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $10k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $45k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#551 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hampton Bays Union Free School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #434 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hampton Bays Elementary School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 682 students, 55% FRL); Hampton Bays Middle School (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #522 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 597 students, 64% FRL); Hampton Bays High School (math 98% / reading 57%, grade A-, #580 of 1,100 statewide, top 53%, 769 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 38% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.1%/yr); 173 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 7 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $299k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $620k; list at $1.50M implies a 142% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $10,417/mo this rent would consume 93% of the median local household income ($134k/yr) (locally 199% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 242 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.