2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
720 sqft ·
Built 1952
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 3 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,416/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,568
Tax + insurance
−$519
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$507
Net cashflow
$-178/mo
Annual
$-2,136/yr
Cap rate
5.58%
Cash-on-cash
-2.55%
DSCR
0.89
1% rule
0.81%
Cash to close
$83,720
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-178 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $268k (10.5% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (19.2% below list).
Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $242k (19.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#430 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, commute F, employment F.
Hudson City School District (town): math 38% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #494 of 590 in NY (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.9%/yr); 161 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $126k; list at $299k implies a 137% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.3% in Hudson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-MJPKBK1R553BVW
· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29