2042 Tully Rd #9

Hughson, CA 95326

$109,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Built 1992 · Manufactured · Active · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,446/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax + insurance: −$182
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$514
• Net cashflow: $1,179/mo
• Annual: $14,144/yr
• Cap rate: 19.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.34%
• DSCR: 3.06
• 1% rule: 2.24%
• Cash to close: $30,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $109k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $109k).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $106k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $754 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#458 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hughson Unified (suburban): math 31% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #681 of 1,400 in CA (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask is 311% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $109k implies a 506% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 19.3% vs local median 3.4% in Hughson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.